Big 12 action continues Tuesday night when the Kansas State Wildcats will head to Frank Erwin Center to face the No. 23 Texas Longhorns.
Texas is 13-4 on the season, including 3-2 in conference play with losses coming to No. 15 Iowa State and Oklahoma State, while the Wildcats are 9-7 and 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming at home against No. 19 Texas Tech.
These teams played in Kansas two weeks ago, and while the Wildcats took a six-point lead to halftime, the Longhorns locked down the Wildcats in the second half and cruised to a 13-point victory.
Can the Wildcats keep things close or will the Longhorns' defense dominate once again? Keep reading our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Kansas State vs. Texas to find out.
Kansas State vs Texas odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This game hit the board with the Longhorns as 11-point favorites and with a total of 124. The spread has shown no movement at the time of writing but the total has ticked up to 125 after some action on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kansas State vs Texas predictions
Predictions made on 1/18/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas State vs Texas game info
• Location: Frank Erwin Center, Austin, TX
• Date: Tuesday, January 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: LHN
Kansas State at Texas betting preview
Injuries
Kansas State: Logan Landers F (Questionable).
Texas: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Longhorns' last five games following an ATS loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. Texas.
Kansas State vs Texas picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Longhorns enter this matchup in need of a bounceback after falling to No. 15 Iowa State 79-70 Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns have struggled with ranked foes thus far, with three of their four losses coming to teams within the Top 25.
Those ranked losses aside, the Longhorns have dominated nearly everyone they've come up against. They're 16th on KenPom's rankings and defensively, they're one of the best teams in the nation, ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency and only allowing 54.5 points per game, which leads the country.
When these teams matched up in Manhattan, Kansas two weeks ago, the Longhorns were sluggish to start, and actually trailed at half-time, but pulled away late after holding the Wildcats to 22 points in the second frame. Kansas State was missing their coach and a handful of players due to COVID-19 issues, while Texas was also missing their second-leading scorer, Andrew Jones.
This time around, both teams appear to be fully healthy, and while that probably helps Kansas State more when compared to the first matchup, it will still be tough sledding tonight for the Wildcats.
While not quite on Texas' level, the Wildcats are strong defensively, but the difference in this game comes on the other end. Kansas State ranks 142nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, compared to Texas who ranks 30th. In the first matchup, Texas was able to hold Kansas State's offense to 36% shooting and 22% from beyond the arc. Unless the Wildcats get big nights from Nijel Pack and Markquis Nowell, we may see similar struggles from Kansas State again tonight.
And while the Wildcats will be much healthier than they were in the first meeting, they may be in for a letdown after taking down the No. 19-ranked Texas Tech Raiders Saturday afternoon. The trends back this up, as the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win.
In addition, the Longhorns have made a habit of crushing teams in their home gym. They're 11-0 SU, 7-4 ATS, and are winning by an average margin of 26 points. On top of that, they've proven they can do it against quality teams, with their last two home outings being 66-52 and 74-59 victories over Oklahoma and West Virginia, respectively. Both of these teams rank higher than Kansas State on KenPom's rankings.
Texas covered as an 8-point favorite in Kansas State's building two weeks ago, and even when you account for Kansas State's improved health, I don't think the three-point difference in the spread does this matchup justice.
Back the Longhorns to dominate at home once again.
Prediction: Texas -11 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
In the first matchup, the total closed at 123, and they played just Over to 127 points. At the time of writing, tonight's total sits at 125, and all signs point towards the Under.
While both teams will be getting their second-leading scorers back tonight (Andrew Jones and Markquis Nowell), these two Top-25 defenses are more than capable of keeping each other in check. On top of that, Texas plays with the seventh-slowest adjusted tempo. Kansas State also ranks outside the Top 200 in that category.
The trends also back this up: the Under is 5-0 in Texas' last five games following an ATS loss and 4-1 in their last five as a home favorite. It's also 6-1 in Kansas State's last seven following a SU win.
Back these stout defenses to keep this game just Under the total.
Prediction: Under 125 (-110)
Best bet
While I love Texas in this home bounce-back spot, the healthy Wildcats can play anyone tough and 11 may end up being just a few too many points. I think the Under is the better bet.
Kansas State is allowing just 61 points per game, while Texas leads the nation in that category at 54.5. The game will play at a slow pace, and while Texas has the offensive edge, they've proven to be sluggish at times throughout the season.
I'm rolling with Under 125 as my best bet.
Pick: Under 125 (-110)
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