Kansas vs Baylor Picks and Predictions: Bears' Hunt for Revenge Comes Up Short

When the No. 10 Baylor Bears (23-5, 11-4) last faced off against the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (23-4, 12-2), Scott Drew was handed one of his most humbling defeats in a long time. The Jayhawks tore apart Baylor on both ends of the court, putting up 83 against a defense that had previously been crowned as the best in the nation and holding a well-oiled Baylor offense to just 59 measly points. 

Will Baylor get revenge or will Kansas pants the Bears once again?

Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and analysis for Kansas vs Baylor on Saturday, February 26th.

Kansas vs Baylor odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Baylor opened as 3.5-point favorites and has since moved down to -3. The total opened at 150.5 and has moved down to 146.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kansas vs Baylor predictions

• Prediction: Kansas +3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 146.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kansas ML (+130)

Predictions made on 2/26/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kansas vs Baylor game info

• Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Kansas at Baylor betting preview

Injuries

Kansas: No injuries to report.
Baylor: LJ Cryer G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Baylor has played to the Under 9-5 in its last 14, and 3-0 on totals of 140 or more. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Baylor.

Kansas vs Baylor picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

There is no doubt that the Bears season would have looked different up to this point had they not faced injury after injury, but the fact of the matter is that the calendar is about to turn to March and the time for excuses is arguably over. That is especially the case tonight as they have Bill Self and his Kansas Jayhawks visiting the Ferrell Center for a rematch of arguably Scott Drew's ugliest loss in years when the Jayhawks emasculated the Bears on both ends of the floor en route to an undeniably decisive victory. Drew probably rightfully had an issue with the way that game was officiated, during which defensive anchor Michael Mayer found himself in foul trouble laughably early. But again, that hardly excuses a 24-point walloping - with or without injuries.

And to the injury point, Baylor may again be without star sophomore guard LJ Cryer, who has played in just one game in the last month and is questionable for Saturday night. On the other side of that coin, the Bears have gotten Adam Flagler back as of late and he adds 13.7 points per game and a 40.4% from deep. Flagler was the architect behind Baylor's most recent win, contributing 29 of the Bears' 66 points in an overtime win over Oklahoma State. But scoring is largely not the issue when it comes to playing Kansas, it's keeping the game manageable on the other end.

Opponents have failed to keep Bill Self's squadron of scorers below the 70-point mark in well over a month, headlined by star guard Ochai Agbaji, who is averaging a blistering 20.2 points per game while shooting a mind-melting 44.5% from three on 6.7 attempts per game. He is complemented by the likes of Christian Braun (15.2 PPG), who could easily be the lead man on a lot of programs, and Jalen Wilson, who has elevated his contributions as of late by chipping in double-digit points in the last seven games. Putting it all together, Kansas is the fourth-ranked offense in the country when it comes to KenPom adjusted efficiency rankings.

And to Baylor's credit, it has played well on that end of the floor outside of their last outing. Prior to Monday's offensive dud, Baylor had averaged 75 points per game in the four games since its no-show against Kansas. Baylor finds a lot of its scoring on long twos, with 32.4% of its shots coming in that form - a mark that ranks 49th in the nation. But Kansas matches up well in that regard, as it held Baylor to 1/11 on 2-point shots outside of the paint in their first matchup. In a vacuum, Baylor has answers elsewhere given that it shoots 34.4% from three (good for third in the Big 12), but Kansas holds opponents to just 30.2% from three, which ranks 30th in the nation.

Prediction: Kansas +3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Kansas has only seen two totals as high as Saturday's mark twice during conference play and it played to the Under on both occasions. In fact, during Big 12 play, the Jayhawks have never gone over a total higher than 141.5. Baylor has just seen three totals of 140 or more against conference opponents and has similarly played to the Under each time.

Kansas' offense rightfully gets a lot of the attention, but its defense is stout as well. The unit ranks 31st according to KenPom. It has held Big 12 opponents to just 68.5 points per game, which ranks third in the conference. Baylor has had uneven performances largely due to its stretch of wide-ranging injuries, and season-long figures don't really do it justice in that regard. With that being said, it has played 9-5 to the Under in its last fourteen.

Prediction: Under 146.5 (-110)

Best bet

We saw how a hobbled Baylor team fared against Kansas last time out and with Cryer questionable and big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) now out for the season, the band is largely warming up to play the same tune. Kansas simply is the better team right now and has the benefit of having the better coach as well. To get a team in this situation as an underdog is a gift that is simply too good to pass on with all things considered.

Pick: Kansas ML (+130)

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