The No. 20 Iowa State Cyclones started the season a perfect 13-0 in non-conference play, but have since gone 3-5 in the Big 12 and sit in the bottom half of the powerhouse conference as a result. One of those losses, a narrow one-point road loss, came against the conference-leading No. 10 Kansas Jayhawks and Tuesday night's rematch between the two has the potential makings of another enthralling game. To add more intrigue, Jayhawks leading scorer Ochai Agbaji will miss the game due to COVID.
Get the inside track on this matchup by reading our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs Iowa State on Tuesday, February 1st.
Kansas vs Iowa State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kansas opened as a four-point favorite and has since come down to -2. The total opened at 138 and has moved down to 136.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kansas vs Iowa State predictions
Predictions made on 2/1/2022 at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas vs Iowa State game info
• Location: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IO
• Date: Tuesday, February 1, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Kansas at Iowa State betting preview
Injuries
Kansas: Ochai Agbaji G (Out).
Iowa State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Bill Self is 105-15 all-time in games following a loss and has covered nine straight spreads following a double-digit loss. Iowa State has played 8-4 to the Under in totals set at 130 or higher. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Iowa State.
Kansas vs Iowa State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Tuesday night will mark the third of five straight games Kansas will play against ranked opponents. They split the first two: a double-overtime win against No. 13 Texas Tech and a loss against No. 12 Kentucky, who now occupies Kansas' previous spot in the rankings at No. 5. Unlike those first two affairs and the previous matchup from last month against Iowa State, tonight's will be on the road.
While Kansas remains near the top of KenPom in offensive efficiency (5th), its play as of late hasn't been promising. After logging 70+ points in the first 13 games of the season, Kansas has reached that mark just three times in the last eight games. Granted the Jayhawks have played tougher competition as of late, but that competition obviously includes the first game with Iowa State, in which the Cyclones and their eighth-ranked KenPom defense held the Kansas offense to 62 points.
But Iowa State's play can be subject to variance largely due to their offense, which ranks 113th. In about a quarter of their games this season, the Cyclones have failed to score more than 60 points. And it's not necessarily always against tough competition that Iowa State seemingly can't buy a bucket, seeing as they put up 60 points against Oregon State (237th ranked defense) and just 44 against Jackson State (145th).
This largely comes from their over-reliance on guards and jumpers to generate offense. The Cyclones' four highest scorers are all guards. None of the four possess a field goal percentage over 50% and they all shoot jump shots 60% of the time. Leading scorer Izaiah Brockington (16.8 PPG) shoots 41% on both two- and three-point jumpers and Caleb Grill is a perimeter specialist (79% of shots from three while shooting 39.6%), so both get a pass. It's largely Tyrese Hunter and Gabe Kalscheur who are driving a lot of that inefficiency.
| Player | At the rim | Jumper total | 2-point jumper | 3-point jumper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brockington | 30.1% | 69.9% | 53.5% | 16.4% |
| Kalscheur | 22.8% | 77.2% | 25.1% | 52.1% |
| Hunter | 39.9% | 60.1% | 23.5% | 36.6% |
| Grill | 14.0% | 85.9% | 6.6% | 79.3% |
And it's not that Iowa State is unequipped to be efficient down low: its 67.4% field goal percentage at the rim ranks 16th in the nation. It's just that the Cyclones lack the frontcourt depth and to take advantage of that efficiency reliably (they rank 292nd in percentage of shots at the rim).
And while Agbaji is out for this game with COVID, Bill Self still has plenty of talent at his disposal. Fellow guard Christian Braun (15.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg) is a more than capable scorer, and while he does not replicate Agbaji's 45% from three, he makes up for it by being a more relentless rim attacker. Forward David McCormack (8.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) has a perfect opportunity to play a large role tonight in Agbaji's absence given Iowa State's lack of size and its tendency to rely on guard-heavy play. While he understandably struggled in Saturday's Big 12/SEC challenge against Kentucky superstar Oscar Tshiebwe, McCormack had scored double-digit points in three of Kansas' last four conference games prior to that.
Between Iowa State's high variance play and relative lack of roster cohesion, expect a deeper, more talented team like the Jayhawks to roll.
Prediction: Kansas -2 (-112)
Over/Under analysis
Given Iowa State's struggles with scoring variance, they've tended to go Under the total when set relatively high. In games with a total of 130+, the Cyclones have played 8-4 to the Under. To compare, the Cyclones have gone 5-4 to the Over in totals set below 130.
And specifically in respect to this matchup, Iowa State sent Kansas to the free-throw line 18 times in a game in which the Jayhawks scored just 62 points and won by a single point. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Cyclones coach T.J. Otzelberger doesn't emphasize the need to play a more disciplined game on defense. Similarly, Bill Self's team has now given up 75+ points in regulation in three straight games.
Given that both teams are already defensively proficient (especially Iowa State) and where the total is at contextually, there's really only one way to lean here. Add in Agbaji's absence, and the answer becomes even clearer.
Prediction: Under 136 (-110)
Best bet
On top of the personnel and matchup advantages in Kansas' favor on Tuesday night, there is also the contextual edge the Jayhawks have. Kansas is coming off an embarrassing 18-point loss to Kentucky, and Self is 105-15 in his 19 years at Kansas coming off of a loss. Self has been particularly great at whipping the team into shape following a double-digit loss, with Kansas covering nine straight spreads in the games following those losses.
In the nine games Kansas has lost by double-digits since 2017-18, it has come back to win by an average margin of 17.7 points in the following game, covering the spread in all nine by an average of 11.0.
Unfortunately for the Iowa State Cyclones, they're running into a buzzsaw of a team AND situation on Tuesday night.
Pick: Kansas -2 (-112)
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