The Sunflower Showdown takes place on Tuesday night, with the No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats hosting the No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks. This is one of the most storied rivalries in college basketball history, with the Jayhawks boasting a 293-94 record all-time and winning the last seven games in the head-to-head.
However, this is KSU's best team in years and oddsmakers are expecting a very close contest with the Jayhawks installed as slim 2-point road favorites and the Over/Under at 147.5. Here are my best free Kansas vs. Kansas State college basketball picks and predictions for January 17.
Kansas vs Kansas State best odds
Kansas vs Kansas State picks and predictions
Everything about this contest suggests we're going to get a thriller. It's a rivalry game, with both sides ranked in the Top 15, and the slightly inferior team (statistically) has home-court advantage. Both teams have generally impressed on both ends of the floor and they match up very well with each other in terms of personnel.
Despite the Jayhawks' dominance this season, they have played some very tight games in conference action, with four of their last five wins coming by four or fewer points. The Wildcats also know all about close games, with a pair of recent victories against Big 12 foes (West Virginia and Baylor) coming in overtime.
It's little surprise that we saw the spread open at just 1.5 and I'm banking on the margin of victory to be less than six points for whoever gets the W.
My best bet: Winning margin 1-5 (+175 at bet365)
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Kansas vs Kansas State spread analysis
Kansas is red-hot and, after losing to No. 9 Tennessee in November, has reeled off 10 straight wins. However, while the Jayhawks are atop the Big 12 standings with a 5-0 record, they are 2-3 ATS, with four of those games coming down to the wire.
The Wildcats are just behind them in the conference standings with a 4-1 SU and ATS mark. They were on a nine-game winning streak of their own until playing No. 14 TCU on the road on Saturday and losing 82-68.
It was a rough performance by KSU on both ends of the floor, with the Wildcats turning the ball over 19 times and allowing the Horned Frogs to shoot 57.7% from 2-point range.
Those have been issues all season, with KSU 213th in the country in turnover rate (18.9%) and 128th in opponent 2-point percentage (48.4% with that number surging to 51.4% in conference play).
That's bad news against a Kansas team that is 44th in the country in opponent turnover rate and shoots 52.1% from inside the arc.
The Jayhawks' 16-1 record is all the more impressive when you consider that they've played the third-toughest record in the country according to ESPN and have gone 6-1 against Quadrant 1 foes.
The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the floor and are 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Kansas State's strength of schedule hasn't been quite as grueling but has still been highly competitive with the Wildcats 4-1 versus Quad 1 foes and beating No. 7 Texas and No. 21 Baylor on the road.
The Wildcats are 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Kansas vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams play stingy defense and are coming off games where they were held below 70 points, but they also have plenty of talented offensive players and like to push the pace. The Jayhawks are 65th in the country in average length of possession (16.5 seconds) while the Wildcats are just behind them at 16.6 seconds.
The Jayhawks are coming off a game where they managed just 62 points but they shot a sizzling 59.3% from 2-point range and turned the ball over just 12 times against one of the top-rated defenses in the country in Iowa State. They had scored at least 75 points in their previous three contests, which included a pair of road games in tough venues.
The Jayhawks have four players averaging double-digit points, led by Wooden Award candidate Jalen Wilson (19.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and sharp-shooting freshman Gradey Dick (14.6 ppg, 48 3PT%).
Forward Keyontae Johnson leads KSU in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounds (7.1 rpg) while point guard Markquis Nowell averages 17.1 ppg and is second in the country with 8.5 assists per game.
The Wildcats have been held below 70 points in their last two games but they scored more than 80 points in three-straight contests before that — including a 116-point explosion against the Longhorns.
Kansas vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Over is 20-8 in Kansas State's last 28 games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. Kansas.
Kansas vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
