The Texas Tech Red Raiders (25-8, 12-6) narrowly escaped an upset against Oklahoma, winning 56-55 down the stretch to advance to the Big 12 championship. They will face the regular season co-champion Kansas Jayhawks (27-6, 14-4), who largely took care of business yesterday beating TCU 75-62.
Both Big 12 powerhouses spent Friday crushing the dreams of some lower-seeded dreamers, and will now trade blows on Saturday night to see who will be crowned conference champion.
Continue reading for free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Texas Tech on Saturday, March 12th.
Kansas vs Texas Tech odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kansas opened as 1-point favorites and has since moved to -1.5. The total opened at 134 and has since moved to 134.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kansas vs Texas Tech predictions
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas vs Texas Tech game info
• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Kansas vs Texas Tech betting preview
Injuries
Kansas: None.
Texas Tech: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Texas Tech possesses the 16th best record against the spread in the nation at 21-12 (63.6%) but has managed just a 7-8 record against the spread on the road or on neutral courts. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Texas Tech.
Kansas vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Saturday's Big 12 championship matchup will feature two powerhouses that have turned their fortune around after shaky finishes to their regular season. Texas Tech closed the season by losing two of its last three, with both of its losses coming to unranked teams and its win coming in the form of a very close game against bottom-of-the-barrel Kansas State. Kansas dropped back-to-back games to Kansas and TCU, and then almost lost again to TCU and then pulled out a win over Texas in overtime.
Since its last loss, Kansas has now averaged 76 points per game. The Jayhawks have won their first two conference tournament games by a combined 37 points, suggesting they may have turned the corner. Texas Tech opened the Big 12 tournament with a 31-point beatdown of Iowa State, but then just narrowly escaped Oklahoma who had already upset Texas in the opening round.
In the first two matchups between these two, Texas Tech won the first 75-67 and then Kansas answered back with a double-overtime win 94-91. Those results may suggest Texas Tech has the edge. When comparing performances against conference opponents, the Red Raiders continue to display that edge. Whereas Kansas split its two games with Baylor and Texas, Texas Tech managed to sweep both. Kansas may have swept Iowa State when Texas Tech only managed to split with it in the regular season, but it also amended that with the 31-point win on Thursday.
The Jayhawks did maintain a much cleaner bill across their entire conference schedule compared to the Red Raiders, with their only loss to an unranked opponent coming against TCU. On top of losing to TCU, Texas Tech also dropped games to Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. This is largely due to Texas Tech's imbalance as the top-ranked defensive and 59th ranked offensive team in the nation, compared to Kansas's sixth-ranked offense and 30th ranked defense.
Ultimately, Texas Tech's defense has been able to hold all teams but they can drop unsuspecting games from time to time with poor offensive showings. In those losses to unranked opponents, it averaged just 55.8 points per game (12.6 points below their average) despite holding those teams to an average of 63.3 points (0.4 points above their average). Kansas, on the other hand, is less subject to variance given its high-octane offense and its defense which is more than good enough.
Unfortunately for Texas Tech, Kansas has a few too many important edges matchup-wise. As the best 3-point shooting team in the conference, Kansas poses a threat against a Texas Tech defense that ranked seventh in the Big 12 out of ten teams in 3-point percentage allowed. Leading scorer Ochai Agbaji (19.8 PPG, 40.3% 3P%) and co-star Christian Braun (14.6 PPG, 38.4%) should be able to take advantage there.
Similarly, Kansas is also the best defensive rebounding team in the conference and Texas Tech ranks seventh in offensive rebounding, which suggests second chances will be few and far between for Texas Tech. For an offense that can regularly draw blanks, not having second chances to lean on can compound the problem. And as a whole Kansas has four players averaging five or more rebounds per game (Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson, and David McCormack) whereas Texas has just one (Kevin McCullar).
Prediction: Kansas -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Kansas has just seen one total at or below Saturday's mark of 134.5, playing to the Over in that game. Texas Tech, given its defensive prowess, sees lower totals much more frequently. It has seen a total of 134.5 or lower 15 times and has played 8-7 to the Under.
As a whole, both teams have been playing to the Under as of late. The Red Raiders have gone Under in three straight games whereas Kansas has gone 4-1 that way in its last five. But in regulation (the second game went to double overtime), the two teams played to 142 and 150 in the first two matchups which may suggest that trend ends.
And with Kansas firing on offense as of late, it will likely be able to put up enough points to make up for any possible Texas Tech offensive blunders.
Prediction: Over 134.5 (-110)
Best bet
Texas Tech may possess one of the best records against the spread in the nation at 21-12 (63.6%) but that record is largely inflated by its 14-4 performance at home. Away from the comforts of its home court, Texas Tech has managed just a 7-8 record against the spread.
On top of possessing key matchup advantages, Kansas' play as of late is more convincing. Five straight wins while averaging 76 points and never dipping below the 70-point mark is much more comforting than Texas Tech managing to drop games to TCU and Oklahoma State while narrowly edging out wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma during its last five.
Expect Kansas to swap its regular season co-champion banner for the distinction of being crowned as the undisputed Big 12 champions.
Pick: Kansas -1.5 (-110)
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