The Kent State Golden Flashes and Toledo Rockets battle Saturday in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) Championship Game, and an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament is at stake.
The 2-seed Golden Flashes denied rival Akron a chance to repeat as MAC Tournament champs, ousting the Zips 79-73 on Saturday.
The 1-seed Rockets have won and covered both games in the MAC tourney, including a solid 82-75 win over the Ohio Bobcats last time out.
Kent State, which has won 20 or more games in four of the past five seasons, is looking for its first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2017. On the flip side, Toledo is looking to dance for the first time since 1980.
Can Kent State get back to the NCAA Tournament, ruining Toledo’s dancing dreams, or will be Rockets finally blast into the Round of 68? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kent State vs. Toledo on Saturday, March 11.
Kent State vs Toledo best odds
Kent State vs Toledo picks and predictions
The Golden Flashes have won five straight games dating back to a road setback at Ball State on February 21. It ended the regular season on an 0-3-1 ATS skid, but Kent State has covered each of its two games in the tourney.
The Rockets pushed past Miami (Ohio) and Ohio in the first two games of the tourney, covering each of the outings. Toledo has won 17 consecutive wins dating back to January 10, while covering six in a row. The team which beat the Rockets last? You guessed it: Kent State.
The Golden Flashes and Rockets meet just once in the regular season, with Kent State protecting its home court with a 75-63 victory as a four-point favorite. The Under cashed in that game, too, which is a bit surprising given Toledo’s offensive prowess.
Toledo registered 85.7 PPG this season, which is second in the nation. It also ranked fifth with a 49.6% mark in field-goal percentage, while checking in second with 40.5% from behind the 3-point line. That’s what makes the point total against Kent State earlier so shocking, as it was easily a season-low.
The Rockets shot just 42% (24-of-57) from the field against the Golden Flashes, while managing just 26% (7-of-27) from behind the 3-point line. Kent State also has a surprising plus-14 rebounding margin, while Toledo turned it over 11 times to just six for the Flashes.
Kent State seems to be able to unlock the combination to shut down the Toledo offense, and I think the Golden Flashes do it again, denying the Rockets a dance ticket.
My best bet: Kent State moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
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Kent State vs Toledo spread analysis
The Golden Flashes seem to rise to the occasion when facing the cream of the crop. Kent State has posted an impressive 18-7-1 ATS mark in the past 26 against winning teams, and it is 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 against teams with a winning percentage over .600.
Kent State has cashed in five of the past six games on a neutral site, too, while going 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight after a straight-up win.
Toledo has been stacking covers lately, going 6-0 ATS in the past six games following a straight-up win, while going 5-0 ATS in the past five following a cover.
The Rockets are also 5-0 ATS in the past five games against teams with a winning overall record.
The difference here, and the reason to pick Kent State, is that the Golden Flashes have already handled the Rockets before. Toledo had a season-low offensive total against Kent State. The Flashes allowed just 65.4 PPG in season, which was No. 51 in the country, while limiting the opposition to 40.1% from the field.
If anybody in the MAC can shut down Toledo, it’s Kent State, the team the Rockets likely least wanted to see. Kent State has won three straight meetings, while covering in eight of the past nine in the series dating back to January 20, 2018.
Kent State vs Toledo Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, the Golden Flashes have a solid defense, and they also held teams to just 31.1% from behind the 3-point line. That mark was good for No. 44 in the country.
Kent State might not completely shut down Toledo from behind the line, but it will likely slow them down. Toledo rolled up 40.5% from behind the arc, and it’s a good free-throw shooting team, too, cashing at a 77.6% clip.
The Over is 4-1 in the past five games for the Rockets, while cashing in four out of the past five games on a neutral floor. Toledo has cashed the Over in four of the past five after a straight-up win, and five of the past six after a cover, too.
Look for a higher-scoring game, and pair that with Kent State on the money line for a nice parlay opportunity.
Kent State vs Toledo betting trend to know
The underdog has cashed in five of the past six meetings between these teams, and Kent State is 8-1 ATS in the previous nine in this series. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kent State vs. Toledo.
Kent State vs Toledo game info
| Conference: | MAC Final |
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland |
| Date: | Saturday, March 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
