Kentucky vs Alabama Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Upend Home Favorites

Alabama will play its third straight game against a Top-5 opponent as the Crimson Tide host the visiting Kentucky Wildcats in one of today’s top matchups.

Entering as the road favorite, the Wildcats will look to beat the Tide for the first time since 2017. Alabama is 10-1 at home this season, while the Wildcats are 3-3 in road games. Will the Tide pull off the upset at home, or will Kentucky prove superior?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Alabama on Saturday, February 5 to find out.

Kentucky vs Alabama odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Alabama has taken significant money, causing this line to move that direction. Since opening as +2 underdogs, the Tide have flipped to -1.5 favorites as of the time of this writing. The total has remained steady at 157. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kentucky vs Alabama predictions

• Prediction: Kentucky +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 157 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 157 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kentucky vs Alabama game info

• Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, LA
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Kentucky at Alabama betting preview

Injuries

Kentucky: Daimion Collins F (Questionable), CJ Fredrick G (Out).
Alabama: Nimari Burnett G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last nine games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Alabama.

Kentucky vs Alabama picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

We get it, Alabama plays very well at home — but this line movement is getting out of hand. The Tide have moved from +2 underdogs at open to -1.5 favorites at current, as everyone seems to be on board that Alabama will improve upon its 10-1 record at home. We posit the controversial take that the Tide’s home-court advantage is actually overrated in the betting market, as they’re just 4-7 ATS at home despite that glamorous overall record. 

The Tide have been a notoriously difficult team to read all season. They’ve generally played to the level of their competition, hanging close and even beating good teams while falling completely flat against bad ones. The Tide have remarkably beaten three of last year’s Final Four squads (Gonzaga on Dec. 3, Houston on Dec. 11, Baylor on Jan. 29) while losing to should-be overmatched opponents in Iona, Memphis, Davidson, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Georgia.

For such a difficult team to predict, the trends help us paint a picture of how to bet this Alabama team. The Tide are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games, including an ugly 0-7 ATS run as the home favorite. They haven’t played well in general when laying points, going just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as the favorite.

Kentucky isn’t some team that we can just expect the Tide to roll through simply because the game is being played at Coleman Coliseum. The Wildcats are no joke, ranking No. 4 in KenPom en route to an 18-4 record. They’re solid on both ends of the floor, scoring 81.9 points per game (eighth-best nationally) on 49.3% shooting (fifth-best) while allowing only 64.4 points per game. 

National Player of the Year candidate Oscar Tshiebwe is as important as ever in this matchup. Alabama chucks up a ton of threes and crashes the boards offensively en route to second-chance looks. Good luck grabbing a high percentage of misses against Oscar down low. Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding, grabbing 15.2 boards per game.

We think Alabama’s reputation for playing well at home and playing up to their competition is providing value on Kentucky. The Wildcats are the better team and Alabama is in a tough scheduling spot as it faces a third-straight Top-5 team. Give us the Wildcats.

Prediction: Kentucky +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We expect plenty of points in this matchup. Both offenses rank within the Top-11 in scoring output and average over 80 points per game. 

The Wildcats score 81.9 points per game and should put up points aplenty on a Tide defense surrendering a whopping 76 points per contest, just the 327th-best mark nationally. Tshiebwe will get his down low, Kellan Grady (44% from deep) will hit his threes, and Sahvir Wheeler will relish the tempo. TyTy Washington is developing into one of the best weapons in college basketball and should shine in this matchup. 

Playing the Over in Alabama games has been a profitable venture. The Tide are 15-7 to the Over on the season. They play at a very fast pace (No.17 in tempo per KenPom), which will lead to an abundance of buckets come game time Saturday night. Jaden Shackelford (17.6 PPG) and Jahvon Quinerly (14.8 PPG) lead the charge, but Keon Ellis (12.0 PPG) and JD Davison (8.2 PPG) provide ample support.

Prediction: Over 157 (-110)

Best bet

We feel confident in both the side and the total, but we’ll be rocking with the Over as our best bet for this matchup.

The Tide play a brand of basketball that is excellent for Overs, featuring plenty of pace and three-point shots. The Wildcats manage the eighth-best scoring output nationally despite playing at only a slightly above average tempo, so they should thrive in this paced-up environment.

Give us the Cats in a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 157 (-110)

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