Kentucky vs Duke Picks and Predictions: The Championship Classic

On Tuesday night, the 2021-22 college basketball season tips off, headlined by the Champions Classic at the world-famous Madison Square Garden.

Mike Krzyzewski's farewell tour with the Duke Blue Devils begins here as they face off against the Kentucky Wildcats. Oddsmakers are expecting a close battle between these bluebloods with college basketball betting lines opening with the Blue Devils as 1-point favorites.

Here are our best free Kentucky vs. Duke picks and predictions for the Champions Classic on Tuesday, November 9 with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET. 

Kentucky vs Duke odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with Duke installed as a 1-point favorite with the Over/Under at 147.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kentucky vs Duke predictions

• Prediction: Duke -1 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 147.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Pass

Predictions made on 11/08/2021 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kentucky vs Duke game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, November 9, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Kentucky at Duke betting preview

Injuries

Kentucky: CJ Fredrick (Questionable).
Duke: AJ Griffin (Probable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 34-16-1 in the Blue Devils' last 51 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Duke.

Kentucky vs Duke picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.

Spread analysis

Both of these elite programs are coming off not-so-elite seasons with neither making the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats slogged through an ugly 9-16 campaign while the Blue Devils went 13-11 and ended their year after a positive COVID-19 test sent them packing in the conference tournament. 

However, both schools are expected to bounce back and Duke enters this season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, one spot ahead of No. 10 Kentucky. Duke returns starting point guard Jeremy Roach and forward Wendell Moore from last season while Mark Williams steps into the starting lineup at center after being a key reserve. But the Blue Devils' success this season will depend on how quickly their highly-regarded recruiting class adjusts to the college game. 

Shooting guard Trevor Keels was a Top-25 ranked recruit by Rivals, ESPN, and 247Sports, while AJ Griffin was the No. 1 small forward according to ESPN, but power forward Paolo Banchero is the real gem of this class. The 6-foot-10 forward is extremely skilled on the offensive end of the floor and will compete to be the No. 1 pick in next year's NBA Draft.

The Wildcats had the top-rated recruiting class in the country a year ago but that didn't mean squat when they took to the floor. 

Well, Calipari has cleaned house and while they still added a pair of top recruits in power forward Daimion Collins and point guard TyTy Washington, their biggest additions came through the transfer portal. Former Iowa sharpshooter CJ Fredrick is still working back into game shape after offseason surgery but big man Oscar Tshiebwe and guards Sahvir Wheeler and Kellan Grady should contribute from opening night. 

This should be a much better Kentucky squad than last year but it will take a while for all these new faces to gel. And while Collins is talented, he's much less refined on the offensive end of the floor than Banchero, who should be the best player on the floor for either team. It's also worth mentioning that Kentucky didn't have the easiest time against tiny Miles College in its final exhibition game last week, trailing by seven points at the half before storming back to win 80-71.

These teams got off to brutal starts last year with the Wildcats losing six of their first seven games and the Blue Devils going 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS in their first 10 contests. That said, Duke played better towards the end of the season and might have been able to make a late run at March Madness if it wasn't for COVID rearing its ugly head. Expect that continuity to carry over into this season and that along with the sheer talent of their incoming class should lead Duke to a win in the season opener.

Prediction: Duke -1 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The last two editions of the Champions Classic saw lower-scoring contests with Duke and Kentucky failing to crack the 70-point plateau in either of their games. That said, when these sides previously met in the Classic in 2018, they totaled a whopping 202 points going way above the generous total of 158. While you shouldn't expect quite so many points on Tuesday, we should see a fast tempo and some solid shooting from both teams.

Kentucky couldn't shoot or take care of the ball last season and that led to an offense that was beyond ugly. However, both of those issues seem to have been addressed.

Wheeler gives the Wildcats a true point guard who led the SEC with 7.4 assists per game last season and he will combine with Washington to form a dynamic backcourt. Their shooting should also be improved with their most consistent outside shooter last season Davion Mintz returning to the lineup while Grady averaged more than 17 points per game for four straight years at Davidson.

Meanwhile, Tshiebwe averaged 11.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for West Virginia two years ago and dominated in the Blue-White scrimmage. He'll give the Wildcats a scoring option down low.

As for Duke, this is a school that can typically fill up the net and this year's version has loads of versatility on offense along with a stud in Banchero who can score from anywhere on the floor. Roach should also be more efficient with the ball after some growing pains as a freshman. With the Over going 34-16-1 in the Blue Devils' last 51 games, back it again on Tuesday.

Prediction: Over 147.5 (-110)

Best bet

There is a massive amount of uncertainty for both of these programs entering this season with so many new faces set to play key roles.

Although Kentucky seems a little less reliant on freshmen than they have in years past, there are still a ton of transfers who will essentially act as free agents. While a new backcourt for the Wildcats means that we can only guess at the tempo and ball movement we'll see from them. 

Meanwhile, Duke will be thoroughly dependent on their incoming freshmen (especially Banchero) but you never really know what you're going to get from 18-year-olds until they hit the floor. Something we saw last year when Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke struggled to adapt to the college game for UK.

It should be fun to watch and maybe put a few bucks down on this game but it's tough to see a true betting advantage with so many question marks this early in the season. 

Pick: Pass

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