The Kentucky Wildcats head to Gainesville to face off against the Florida Gators in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday night.
The Wildcats are coming off a big win against Tennessee, to move to third place in the SEC, while the Gators have dropped four of their last five games.
College basketball betting lines opened with the Wildcats as 3.5-point road favorites before shortening to -2.5. Here are my best free Kentucky vs. Florida college basketball picks and predictions for February 22.
Kentucky vs Florida best odds
Kentucky vs Florida picks and predictions
The Gators have struggled this season, and losing Colin Castleton to a season-ending injury last week might be the nail in the coffin.
The center was Florida's best player on both sides of the ball, pacing the team with 16 points per game on 50% shooting while also leading the SEC with 3.0 blocks per game. Florida's second-leading scorer, Will Richard, averages a modest 10.3 ppg, with nobody else on the team scoring more than 9.0 ppg.
Jason Jitoboh has taken over as Florida's starting center but is averaging just 4.0 points and 2.0 rebounds without a single block in 20 minutes per game over the last two contests. The 300-pound big man's lack of mobility will also be exposed in pick-and-roll situations.
The Wildcats have a few key injuries of their own, with senior point guard Sahvir Wheeler sidelined and sixth-man C.J. Fredrick questionable, but neither player is as important as Castleton and Kentucky has suitable replacements.
Five-star freshman Cason Wallace has settled into the lead guard role and has racked up 23 assists with just five turnovers over the last three games. Another five-star freshman, Chris Livingston, has stepped into the starting lineup and is averaging 11.8 ppg on 55% shooting over the last four games.
When these teams faced off on Feb. 4 in Lexington, the Wildcats held on for a 72-67 victory after leading by 11 points at the half.
That was despite a rare off-night from big man Oscar Tshiebwe, who went just 2-14 from the field. Last year's Wooden Award winner, Tshiebwe is averaging 15.8 points and 13.0 rebounds per game while boasting a 54.5 FG%. He also had a pair of 27-point performances against the Gators and Castleton last season, so expect a much better showing tonight with Castleton sidelined.
It's been tough to trust Kentucky on the road this season but the absence of Castleton will be too much for the Gators to overcome down the stretch. We saw them get clobbered by Arkansas on the weekend without their star center and they won't be able to cover the modest spread tonight despite playing at home.
My best bet: Kentucky -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Kentucky vs Florida spread analysis
The Wildcats are coming off back-to-back victories and most recently beat the Volunteers 66-54 at home.
Although the No. 11 ranked Vols are struggling, they still have the highest-rated defense in the country. It was impressive that Kentucky was able to shoot 44% from the field and turned the ball over a modest 10 times against them.
John Calipari's squad will try to duplicate that success on the road today against another strong defensive team in Florida. The Gators are 23rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that was largely due to the rim-protecting ability of Castleton, and it will be interesting to see how much they drop off in that area.
Keep in mind that the Gators have surrendered more than 80 points in three of their last four games and are coming off an 84-65 road loss to Arkansas.
The Gators have struggled offensively all season and are just 129th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 243rd in effective field goal percentage (49.2%).
The Wildcats are 15th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but rank a modest 86th on defense. In addition to Tshiebwe, they have three other players averaging double digits in scoring with guard Antonio Reeves putting up 13 ppg and shooting 41.9% from deep.
Kentucky has dominated on the glass and is sixth in the country in rebound rate (55.6%). Florida ranks just 270th in rebound rate (48.2%) and will struggle even more in that area without the 6-foot-11 Castleton and his team-high 7.7 rpg.
Kentucky vs Florida Over/Under analysis
It's interesting that, when these teams faced off at full strength just 18 days ago, the total was at 132.5 in Lexington. They went Over that number and combined for 139 points, but it still seems like a bit of an overreaction to move this number to 140.5 tonight — especially with neither team pushing the pace or shooting particularly well in that contest and the Wildcats having a subpar 46.2 EFG% on the road.
Sure, Castleton's absence will hurt Florida on the defensive end of the floor but his void inside will also negatively affect it on offense. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will be without Wheeler, who leads the conference with 5.6 assists per game.
Prior to that previous meeting cashing the Over, the Under had gone 7-1 in the last eight showdowns between these SEC foes.
However, recent trends for both teams indicate are pointing in the opposite direction. The Over is 6-1 in Kentucky's last seven games overall while cashing in five straight contests for the Gators.
Kentucky vs Florida betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Florida.
Kentucky vs Florida game info
| Location: | Exactech Arena, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 22, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
