Saturday's college basketball slate will feature the annual Big 12 / SEC challenge, a series of 10 games played between the conferences every January. In the premier matchup of the series and day, the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks will defend their flawless 10-0 home record against the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats.
Get the inside track on this matchup by reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs Kansas on Saturday, January 29th.
Kentucky vs Kansas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened with Kansas as 4.5-point favorites and has since moved up to -5.5. The total opened at a very lofty 154.5 and has since moved to 152.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kentucky vs Kansas predictions
Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kentucky vs Kansas game info
• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Kentucky at Kansas betting preview
Injuries
Kentucky: TyTy Washington G (Questionable).
Kansas: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Kansas has played 4-1 to the Over when facing Top-100 offenses according to KenPom. Both Kentucky and Kansas have played 4-2 to the Over in their last six. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Kansas.
Kentucky vs Kansas picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Whether or not Kentucky can walk into Allen Fieldhouse and walk out with a win is entirely dependent on the status of freshman star TyTy Washington. According to EvanMiya.com's Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) which aims to measure a player's overall value, Washington is the 11th-most valuable player in the nation. That largely comes from his offensive abilities, whether it's generating for himself or others, as he ranks first on the team in on / off splits. Defensively, he may "only" rank fourth, but given that Davion Mintz (who started in his place on Tuesday) is second-worst on the team in that regard, the jump is rather noticeable.
His value was very apparent in last week's Auburn game. Kentucky scored 25 points in the first 11.5 minutes and had a nine-point lead on the road over the No. 2 team prior to his exit. Without Washington the rest of the way, the Wildcats managed to score 46 points across the next 28.5 minutes of play. Kentucky went on to lose that game by nine.
Make no mistake, the Wildcats are still incredibly talented without Washington. Oscar Tshiebwe leads the nation in rebounding (15.2 per game) and ranks even higher than Washington in the aforementioned BPR metric (ranking fourth in the nation). Sahvir Wheeler (11.1 PPG, 6.9 APG), the team's assist leader, returned to action on Tuesday and racked up 15 points and 6 assists. Kellan Grady picked up heavy minutes in Washington's absence as well, scoring 18 points.
And while the offense stalled out last Saturday, that was against Auburn's 10th-ranked defense according to KenPom. Kansas ranks 49th in that regard, and Kentucky does enough things on offense really well to keep the points coming, whether it's at the rim (second in field goal percentage at the rim), three-point shooting (best in the SEC during conference play), or offensive rebounding (12th in the nation), The primary concern should be on the other side of the ball.
Kansas' third-ranked offense according to Ken-Pom is their toughest challenge of the season thus far, and the Wildcats have already struggled to slow down higher-end offenses such as Duke (14th, scored 79) and Auburn (15th, scored 80). Leading the charge for Kansas is Ochai Agbaji, whose blistering 21.3 points per game ranks eighth in the nation.
Agbaji leads the Jayhawks' hyper-efficient inside-out approach, bringing crafty finishes at the rim (78.2%) and lethal perimeter shooting (47.0%). While the latter is a bit lofty to sustain long-term, Agbaji has made very significant strides in that department regardless, improving his percentage by at least 3% each year since shooting 30.7% his freshman year. Nevertheless, fellow perimeter threats Remy Martin (35.7% 3P) and Jalen Coleman-Lands (40.5%) help round out the perimeter threat (Kansas' 36.6% ranks 59th), which helps keep defenses honest.
To Kansas' credit, they've been winning very close games as of late - their last three wins have all been by three points. But then again, all three of those wins came against lesser teams, and the spread gives us more cushion than that margin.
Prediction: Kentucky +5.5 (-105)
Over/Under analysis
While Kentucky has been prone to allowing points to higher-ranked offenses, Kansas hasn't really had the (dis)pleasure of playing one. The highest ranked offense they've faced thus far belongs to Michigan State (30th), and they've played just five games altogether against Top-100 offenses. Yet in those games, they've given up an average of 77.2 points per game. It should come to no surprise that the Jayhawks have played 4-1 to the Over in those five games.
And Over has been the theme for both teams over the course of the season and as of late. Kansas has played to the Over 12-5-2 this season, and while Kentucky started the season 3-6 in that regard, they have played 7-4 to the Over in the last eleven. Both Kansas and Kentucky are 4-2 to the Over in each of their last six games.
Prediction: Over 152.5 (-110)
Best bet
With Washington's status for the game truly questionable, even as of Saturday morning, the spread may be a shaky proposition to consider as a best bet. With Washington, Kentucky is the team with more talent, and with an arguably similar resume while playing tougher competition. That would obviously immediately lend its hand to a team catching 5.5 points.
But the circumstances will force a pivot here. In regards to Washington, both paths are seemingly friendlier to the total. If Washington plays, the offense he generates only helps the case for the total. If he doesn't, the defensive downgrade to Mintz and others lends its hands to more points for the Jayhawks.
Make no mistake, if Washington plays (and if he is truly healthy) then 5.5 points is far too many. But for now, we'll take a safer path.
Pick: Over 152.5 (-110)
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