Kentucky vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Catch Wildcats At the Right Time

Two of the most storied programs in college basketball will collide on Tuesday night as the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats face off against the Michigan State Spartans in the Champions Classic in Indianapolis. 

The Spartans are 1-1 on the year after falling 64-63 to the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs on Friday. The Wildcats have started the season with two wins over overmatched opponents in the Howard Bison and the Duquesne Dukes.

Michigan State comes into this game as a significant underdog but has already shown it can hang in with a Top-5 team on a neutral court. We’ll discuss whether the Spartans can threaten another upset in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Michigan State on November 15.

Kentucky vs Michigan State best odds

Kentucky vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Michigan State already has experience in neutral site games this season. The Spartans played Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier in San Diego in their Friday game and looked good in the contest. They were up by as much as 12 points in the second half before the Bulldogs came back to win.

Michigan State earned a bit of respect through that close loss, nearly jumping into the AP Top 25 poll. As expected, the Spartans showed strong backcourt play behind guards AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker, but the real surprise was the play of junior center Mady Sissoko. After averaging less than five minutes per game last season, Sissoko held his own against Gonzaga’s Drew Timme on Friday, scoring 14 points and grabbing nine rebounds. Michigan State played far better with him on the court in his 25 minutes.

Sissoko could be in line for another test when he takes on Kentucky. The Wildcats have their own star big man in Oscar Tshiebwe, who averaged 17.4 points and 15.2 rebounds per game last season. Tshiebwe hasn’t played yet this year, as he is still recovering from a knee procedure. While Kentucky head coach John Calipari seems optimistic about Tshiebwe playing on Tuesday, he also suggested that his center might be on a minutes limit as he works his way back into playing shape.

We haven’t learned much about the Wildcats so far this year. Big wins over Howard and Duquesne were expected of a program that earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament last year. Guards Cason Wallace, Iowa transfer CJ Fredrick, and Antonio Reeves have been leading the way in Tshiebwe’s absence but will be more evenly matched against a talented Spartans backcourt.

Whether or not Tshiebwe plays some minutes on Tuesday, that battle in the backcourt will be critical to determining who wins. While Kentucky has more depth, Tom Izzo has plenty of talent to compete with the Wildcats, especially at the guard position. If Sissoko really has developed into a solid center who can compete with some of the best big men in the country, then we can expect fierce battles at every position all night long.

Kentucky will likely pull out a win in which should be a tightly played contest right through the final minutes. However, the current spread has the Wildcats as a 6.5-point favorite. That’s far too many points to be giving a tested Michigan State team, especially when Kentucky hasn’t proven anything yet this season. I’m backing the Spartans with the points.

My best bet: Michigan State +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Kentucky vs Michigan State spread analysis

Sportsbooks opened the line on tonight’s game at six points, and the number has bounced around a bit since then. At the time of this writing, the most common spread is Kentucky -6.5, though some sites have the Wildcats giving six or seven points.

Kentucky covered the spread as a big favorite in each of its first two games to build a 2-0 record ATS. Michigan State covered as a 12-point underdog against Gonzaga and is now 1-1 ATS.

One early issue for Kentucky has been free-throw shooting. The Wildcats are just 60.5% from the line so far, which could be a factor in a close game. While Kentucky has otherwise put up great numbers on offense and defense, those performances came against underwhelming opponents, while the issues from the stripe could persist throughout the season.

I like Michigan State in this matchup, especially with the spread as large as it is. It’s not just that the Spartans played Gonzaga tough, but that they were outplaying the Bulldogs for at least 30 minutes that has me believing they can do the same against Kentucky. The pick here is Michigan State and the points.

Kentucky vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on this game opened at 141.5, and sites have largely stuck with that number so far. 

Michigan State has played well under that number in each of its first two games. The best comparison is the Spartans’ recent neutral site game against Gonzaga, which finished with a total of just 127 points. The Spartans also went under tonight’s number in their 73-55 win over the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky did play a high-scoring game against Howard, winning 95-63. But the Wildcats played to a lower total of 129 in a 77-52 win over Duquesne.

While Kentucky might play at a faster pace than Gonzaga, there’s not much to suggest they can force Michigan State into an entirely different kind of game. The Wildcats are facing their best defensive opponent of the year so far, and the Spartans haven’t shown any particular explosiveness this season.

With that in mind, the Under is definitely the play here. In four combined games, these two teams have only played a game over 130 once so far, so going higher than 140 points feels like a big ask. It’s a cautious play — in a close game, these teams could both reach 70 points as they battle down the stretch — but there’s no reason at all to back the Over, based on what we’ve seen this year.

Kentucky vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Michigan State.

Kentucky vs Michigan State game info

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