The Kentucky Wildcats will take a trip to Purcell Pavillion to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Saturday evening.
Kentucky is currently 7-1 on the year with the lone loss coming against Duke in the first game of the season. On the other hand, Notre Dame is 3-4 on the year but has played a much harder schedule.
Can Notre Dame end its three-game losing streak against Kentucky, at home? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky Wildcats vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish on December 11.
Kentucky vs Notre Dame odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Kentucky opened as a 4-point favorite. Since opening, bettors have moved the line to -4.5. The total, on the other hand, opened at 145.5 and is currently 145 at most outlets with most books potentially going lower soon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kentucky vs Notre Dame predictions
Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 7:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kentucky vs Notre Dame game info
• Location: Purcell Pavillion, South Bend, IN
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Tip-off: 5:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Kentucky at Notre Dame betting preview
Injuries
Kentucky: CJ Fredrick G (Out).
Notre Dame: Robby Carmody G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Notre Dame.
Kentucky vs Notre Dame picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It’s hard to have any trust in Notre Dame right now. The Fighting Irish have lost four straight games against Division I opponents. Despite all of Notre Dame’s opponents being in the Top 150, the way that the Fighting Irish have lost some of these games just hasn’t been a good look.
Notre Dame hasn’t played great defensively to start the season. Teams are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 53.2% while ND allows 44.3% from downtown. The Fighting Irish won’t earn a high amount of turnovers and should be able to keep Kentucky off the line. However, even with Notre Dame holding opponents to 22.5% offensive rebounds, it’s going to be a real challenge for the Fighting Irish on the defensive glass.
Kentucky ranks as the top team in the nation in offensive rebounding, grabbing 48.2% on the offensive glass. You can thank big man Oscar Tshiebwe, who is averaging 15.3 points and 15.4 rebounds per game. 6.5 of those rebounds are coming from the offensive glass. It’s been absurd watching this man go to work.
On the defensive end, Kentucky is brilliant as well. The Wildcats won’t go forcing many turnovers, but they’ll force some really bad shots. Opponents are shooting 29.6% from downtown and 43.2% from inside. It’s also going to be tricky for Notre Dame to get to the line with Kentucky limiting fouls on the defensive end.
The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, have a reliable offense, but it’s nothing special. Notre Dame is shooting a 47.9% effective field goal percentage and just 29.6% from downtown.
In this game, Notre Dame will be taking way more threes, but knowing how poorly the Fighting Irish have defended the three, Kentucky will more than likely put up some long balls as well, knowing it can rebound misses well for second chances.
Take Kentucky -4.5.
Prediction: Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
I’ve got to go with the Under here. Notre Dame isn’t even averaging over 70 points per game this season while Kentucky has held opponents to 60.9 on average.
I understand that Kentucky hasn’t played much competition outside of Duke and that Notre Dame has had to play much harder opposition. But these Notre Dame numbers still stand true going up against a team like Kentucky.
Offensively, Notre Dame can’t hang.
Prediction: Under 145 (-110)
Best bet
I’m not the biggest fan of taking favorites on the road. This is certainly a bit of a weird line. But to be fair, Kentucky has been feasting off of mid-majors while Notre Dame has been getting crushed by high-major opponents.
I’m not going to read much into it. Notre Dame lost by double-digits to Boston College, Illinois, and was beat on a neutral court against Texas A&M and Saint Mary’s.
Kentucky fits that group above.
Pick: Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
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