Kentucky vs Vanderbilt SEC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Don't Underestimate Commodores

The Vanderbilt Commodores are coming off an upset win over last year's SEC champions and look to play spoiler again as they take on the Kentucky Wildcats in the conference tournament quarterfinals on Friday night.

The Wildcats are the No. 2 seed but were the betting faves to win the tourney at +190. Oddsmakers expect them to make light work of Vandy today with college basketball betting lines opening with Kentucky as a double-digit favorite.

Here are our best free college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt on March 11, with tipoff at 8 p.m. ET. 

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened with Kentucky installed as an 11.5-point favorite with the Over/Under at 143. Early money has come in on Vanderbilt and the Under, shifting the line to UK -10.5 and moving the total to 142.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off, and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt predictions

• Prediction: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kentucky first-half -6 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt betting preview

Injuries

Kentucky: None.
Vanderbilt: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Commodores are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Kentucky comes into the SEC tourney with the third-best odds of winning the national championship and has won eight of its last 10 games, going 4-5-1 against the spread over that span. 

Vanderbilt has won three in a row and battled back from a 15-point second-half deficit to beat Alabama 82-76 as a 5-point underdog last night. Although the Commodores won't be dropping 54 points in the second half against Kentucky today, they might not have to in order to cover the 10.5-point spread currently facing them. 

The Commodores came back to close the gap against Kentucky when these teams previously faced off in Lexington on February 2, with Vandy losing 77-70 but easily covering as 14.5-point road dogs. The Commodores limited the Wildcats to 39% shooting in that contest and they've been tough defensively all season, ranking 39th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and limiting foes to a 41.9 FG%.

That said, Vandy isn't nearly as good at getting baskets and that second-half outburst last night had more to do with Alabama's atrocious defensive play. The Commodores rank just 250th in the nation with a 42.5 FG% and their offense has been far too reliant on Scottie Pippen Jr (20.7 points and 4.3 assists per game) to get things going. 

That lack of scoring depth will be exposed against a Kentucky team that holds foes to just 65.7 ppg on a 41 FG%. The Wildcats are also terrific with the ball, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, despite having a clear edge on both ends of the floor this spread might be a tad too large. 

Keep in mind that John Calipari's squad has struggled to string together impressive performances, going just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games coming off an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Vandy has been one of the best bets in the nation lately, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall and 8-0 ATS in its previous eight games when catching points. 

Prediction: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Commodores play hard on the defensive end of the floor but they've had a tough time containing the better offensive teams they've faced this season. They surrendered 77 and 78 points in two games against the Wildcats, and are 7-1 O/U in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 

Kentucky is just such a tough team to match up against defensively with all five starters averaging double-digits. The Wildcats have the best passer in the conference in Sahvir Wheeler, a gifted secondary ball-handler in TyTy Washington, plus they can score inside and outside thanks to dominant center Oscar Tshiebwe (17.3 ppg, 60.6 FG%), and sharpshooter Kellan Grady (11.9 ppg, 43.1 3PT%).

There's a reason Kentucky ranks ninth in the country with 80.1 ppg and is seventh with a 48.9 FG%. With the Commodores shooting better in recent weeks and averaging 75.3 ppg over their last eight games, we're expecting this game to go above the total. 

Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)

Best bet

While we're leaning towards Vanderbilt on the full-game spread our best bet is to actually fade it in the first half.

The Commodores could find themselves coming out a bit flat after such an emotional come-from-behind win last night. And don't forget that a comeback was only necessary against Bama because they fell behind by 10 points by halftime. They also trailed the Wildcats by 10 points after 20 minutes when these teams previously faced off. 

Kentucky has typically gotten off to fast starts, ranking 12th in the country with an average first-half margin of plus-6.8 ppg, and it had double-digit leads at halftime in each of its previous two games (versus Florida and Mississippi last week). Back the Big Blue on the first-half spread.

Pick: Kentucky first-half -6 (-110)

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