Longwood vs UNC Asheville Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Have Eyes on the Prize

The Lancers will need to pull off another upset if they want to become champs — the UNC Asheville Bulldogs enter as the favorite, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering the difference between the two teams’ respective records in conference play. 

Mike Morrell’s squad is led by one of the top mid-major stars in forward Drew Pember, who averages 20.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game. The ultra-productive forward was at his best on Saturday and the Bulldogs needed every bit of his outstanding triple-double stat line to advance. Pember dropped 30 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists, two steals, and two blocks in the overtime win over Gardner Webb in the semis. 

The Bulldogs are the reigning conference champions after defeating Campbell 77-73 in last year’s final. Longwood won this tournament in dominant fashion two years ago, blowing out Winthrop 79-58 in the final. 

These teams split the two regular season matchups with UNC Asheville grabbing a 4-point win at home and then Longwood snaring an 80-75 victory at their home. The betting line resembles the line in the first matchup when the Bulldogs were -3 at home. 

I’m not a big fan of Longwood’s offensive profile. The Lancers take a ton of 2-point jumpers (17th in Haslametic’s mid-range attempt rate metric). That’s the least efficient shot in basketball, and it’s not like the Lancers are particularly adept at knocking them down, hitting 2-point jumpers at just 37.3%, which ranks 216th nationally, per Hoop-Math. 

On the flip side, the Bulldogs make their hay offensively by getting to the foul stripe, ranking 12th nationally in free throw attempts (23.8) and 10th in free throws made per game (17.7). They have an advantage on their efficiency from the line in this matchup as they make 74.3% of their free throws compared to 68% for the Lancers. 

They also shoot well from outside the arc (37% on 3-pointers), and openings should be there against Longwood’s 257th-ranked 3-point defense (34.7%). Asheville’s offense is just more efficient overall, ranking 63rd in effective field goal percentage — 170 spots higher than Longwood down at 233rd.

UNC Asheville is the better team and therefore will have my bet. The Bulldogs have the much better record, have the better analytical profile (mainly, ranking 137th in Barttovik’s rankings since the start of February — 71 spots higher than Longwood), and have not only the best player on the court but arguably the best player of any mid-major conference.

My best bet: UNC Asheville -2.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Longwood vs UNC Asheville same-game parlay

UNC Asheville -2.5

Under 142.5

+230 at FanDuel

I prefer to play the Under in most conference championship games unless given a good reason to think otherwise. Teams tend to tighten up a bit with so much at stake, especially when neither has the comfort of playing in their home gym. 

Although yesterday’s high scores look intriguing, keep in mind that both went to overtime. The first two rounds of the Big South tournament were fairly low-scoring — the five games averaged just 125.6 ppg. 

These two teams played in one high-scoring game (155 points) and one low-scoring game (126 points) during the regular season. Longwood had an outlier shooting performance in the 80-75 win at home, hitting 13 threes — three more than in any other game this season. The Lancers average just 5.7 made threes per game, which is 329th nationally. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened at UNC Asheville -2.5 at some books and -3 at others. That’s where the line still resides as of the time of this writing late Saturday night. Be sure to track any moves using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Both teams have been perfectly neutral at covering lines this season at 15-15 ATS apiece. 

Since I’ve already expanded on the spread in my best bet section, allow me to take a closer look at the total. It opened at 144 at some books but is already seeing some downward action, which is the correct move in my opinion. 

Neither team plays with a ton of pace — UNC Asheville is decently fast, ranking 139th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric compared to Longwood which checks in at 220th. 

Longwood’s offense is the worst unit on the court, at least according to the numbers. The Lancers don’t shoot well and rely on a strong effort on the boards to win games, ranking 13th in rebounding percentage at 55.1%.

While that’s an impressive number, it doesn’t make up for the fact that they never shoot threes, are bad at the foul line, and struggle to get to the paint. They would’ve gone 0-2 against Asheville in the regular season if they didn’t have a completely outlier shooting performance at home in the second matchup. 

In a tight championship game, it’s tough for me to consider an Over play when one team has such an ugly offensive profile. Longwood being an elite rebounding team should keep Asheville off the offensive glass, which will limit second-chance points and perhaps contribute to a low-scoring game script. 

Longwood vs UNC Asheville betting trend to know

UNC Asheville is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of six points or fewer. Find more college basketball betting trends for Longwood vs. UNC Asheville.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville game info

Longwood vs UNC Asheville key injuries

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