Louisville vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Devils Take Frustrations Out on Cardinals

The Duke Blue Devils will be in a bad mood when they host the Louisville Cardinals as huge college basketball odds favorites at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Wednesday.

Not only are the Dukies still sore from a loss at Wake Forest this weekend, but they could be down two key players with Caleb Foster and Kyle Filipowski suffering injuries on Saturday — the latter of which occurred when Wake Forest fans stormed the court.

The Cardinals could be just the punching bag Duke needs right now. Louisville brings a three-game losing skid into Durham and is just 2-10 SU in its last dozen games going back to January 13. That span includes an 83-69 loss to the Blue Devils at home on Jan. 23.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this ACC affair and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Louisville at Duke on February 28.

Louisville vs Duke best odds

Louisville vs Duke picks and predictions

The “Crazies” of Cameron Indoor will be a sight for sore eyes when the Blue Devils tip off on Wednesday night. 

Duke is back in Durham after a three-game road swing and playing a little pissed off after the events of Saturday’s stop in Wake Forest. Not only did the Dukies fall 83-79, snapping a five-game run, but the Demon Deacon faithful stormed the court and injured star center Kyle Filipowski in the process.

Getting back on the horse is key for head coach Jon Scheyer, who celebrated his team's resilience during that road trip and predicts a big finish for the Blue Devils over the final four games of the regular season. That begins with a strong showing versus Louisville. 

Duke has actually been in this spot before, taking on UL after coming off an upset loss to Pitt on January 23. The Blue Devils put up 83 points (45 in the first half) inside the KFC! Yum Center.

The Cardinals, who rank at the bottom of the ACC in most defensive measurements, have been in a nosedive in February, giving up more than 83 points per game in their six outings this month — including scores of 86, 89, 92, and 94 points against in that span.

Louisville’s defense has been extra porous the past three games, most notably protecting the perimeter. The Cardinals have watched foes fire at a 47% clip from distance over that trio of losses, with Boston College, Pitt, and Notre Dame burying UL with double-digit makes from outside. 

Duke is a much stronger shooting team than those past opponents, topping the ACC in 3-point success. The Blue Devils knock down almost nine triples per home game on the year and fire at a 38.5% clip from beyond the arc on Coack K Court.

Game models for this ACC matchup all have Duke projected for more than 85 points, with some forecasts flirting with 90 points. Even with Foster doubtful and Filipowski dinged up, I like the Dukies to top their team total of 85.5 points on Wednesday night.

My best bet: Duke team total Over 85.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)

Louisville vs Duke same-game parlay

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Louisville vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Devils opened as big as 20.5-point home chalk on Tuesday night, and the market has settled it at -19.5 with some sharper books opening the spread a point shorter.

This is the first time Duke has played in front of the Cameron Crazies in a while, having completed a three-game road swing with a 2-1 SU and ATS mark. The loss at Wake Forest snapped a five-game SU and ATS run for the Blue Devils, who are 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS at home on the season. 

Filipowski is a game-time decision after suffering a bruised knee while Wake Forest fans stormed the court on Saturday, potentially leaving the Blue Devils without their big man in the middle. 

While Scheyer was more optimistic about Filipowski’s status for Wednesday, he wasn’t as glowing about the chances of Foster suiting up. The freshman, who had played his way into the starting lineup, left in the second half with a foot injury.

That takes plenty of punch out of Duke’s offense, which ranks No. 1 in efficiency in the ACC, according to KenPom.com. The Blue Devils average 83.4 points as a host while firing at a 56.9% effective field goal rate.

Even with those missing piece, however, Louisville could be in over its head. The Cardinals rank at the bottom of the ACC in defense, ranked 15th in defensive efficiency, and oozing almost 81 points against on the road. That’s led to a 1-9 SU mark in true road games and a 5-5 ATS record as a visitor.

Wednesday’s total opened at 153 points and quickly trimmed to as low as 151.5 at some books, given the status update on Duke’s injured standouts. 

The Blue Devils are 12-15 Over/Under on the season, including an 8-7 O/U count in Durham. The 83-79 loss at Wake Forest played Over the closing total of 150.5 on Saturday and snapped a five-game Under run for Duke total results.

As for the Cardinals, they’re 14-13 O/U this year with a 4-6 O/U record on the road. Louisville played Under in its last two outings after managing outputs of 50 and 59 points in losses to Notre Dame and Pitt.

These ACC foes finished Over the closing total of 149 points back in January, with Duke flattening UL 83-69 inside the KFC Yum! Center. The Blue Devils jumped out to a fast start with 45 points in the first half of that victory.

Louisville vs Duke betting trend to know

Louisville has allowed four of its last six opponents to score 86 points or more. Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Duke.

Louisville vs Duke game info

Louisville vs Duke key injuries

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