Louisville vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ellis Continues to Shine for Cardinals

The Louisville Cardinals and Duke Blue Devils meet in an ACC battle that has become an important game for the gome side.

Duke is, for now, on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. It comes into this matchup off successive wins, including a 22-point dispatching of Syracuse its last time out. It could be turning a corner after what's mostly been a disappointing season with a record of 19-8.

It's been a historically bad season for the Cardinals under first-year Head Coach Kenny Payne. Louisville sits at just four wins which will undoubtedly end as a historic low winning percentage for the program.

With that said, the glimmer of hope for Cards' fans is that their team has played better lately. They are fresh off a 10-point win against Clemson and have played some of the toughest competition in the conference quite close over the last month. 

What's the best bet for this game? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Duke.

Louisville vs Duke best odds

Louisville vs Duke picks and predictions

The inclination here is certainly to take Duke on the spread. 

We'll talk more about this later, but this is an extremely tough situational spot for the Cards. They're coming off an emotional home victory on the night the school honored the 2013 national champion team. Now it heads on the road — with just a day of rest — against a team that cannot afford to slip up that has significantly more talent than them.

With that said, Louisville has surprisingly been an ATS wagon as of late. Since the start of the month, the Cardinals have been 5-1 ATS which is the best record of anyone in the conference. It's forced me to look elsewhere for my best bet, too. 

I'm finding the best value in the prop market. Duke's pick-and-roll defense has been awful for much of the season. It's been exposed in various ACC games this season, most recently against Miami when the Canes' guard play combined for over half its points. From a conference standpoint, the Devils' pick-and-roll defense is the second-worst in the league. They've allowed .86 points per possession on such sets and an eFG of 46%.

Perhaps no guard in the ACC is more prepared to expose this weakness than Ellis. 

Sure, you have a few concerns. Maybe the insane volume of minutes and usage catches up with Ellis soon. Or maybe Dereck Lively has a repeat of North Carolina blocking seemingly everything at the rim. Still, though, it's not enough to pass up this number.

Ellis is as hot as anyone in the country. His last three games have combined for an average of 27.3 points per game. That clip would be the second-best in the country. From a pick-and-roll perspective, Ellis has thrived. His shot quality rating on these sets is the sixth best in the ACC, meaning that Ellis is getting into quality positions to score in these spots.

In addition to that, his eFG of 51% is the eighth-best in the conference. We also have an extremely high usage rate working in our favor. Ellis' usage rate of 30 is second in the ACC, with minutes played being fourth. Quite frankly, it's a rarity to see him even leave the game. Louisville struggles without him and can not afford for him to get many breathers. 

There are too many variables converging here to pass up a number below Ellis' season average. Kihei Clark of Virginia is the most recent guard that Duke has played who compares statistically to Ellis. Even he finished that matchup with 16 points without coming close to the amount of usage Ellis sees in an average game. Back El Ellis to continue his hot scoring streak once again tonight. 

My best bet: El Ellis Over 16.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Louisville vs Duke spread analysis

As I talked about earlier, I definitely have a lean toward Duke here. As a devoted fan of Louisville and someone who follows it more closely than any average human, I have doubts about it in this spot.

Louisville has yet to show the type of sustainable play throughout a game — much less from game to game — that you need to show up in this spot. Still, you'll have a better chance of cashing a bet in-game. I want to play Duke at around 12.5 or better in-game. I'll pass on a side here if I don't get that number.

A few notable trends must be mentioned:

The road team is 4-1 ATS between these two programs in the last five games.

Duke is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win which hints at its inconsistent play, much like its opponent. 

Louisville vs Duke Over/Under analysis

I will place a half unit on Louisville's Team Total Over 59.5 at -110 on DraftKings. 

My projections have the Cards scoring 64 points, and that number feels a bit low, given the previously outlined defensive issues that Duke has. Louisville's offense has really improved as of late. In three of the last three games that have seen more than 60 possessions, the Cardinals have scored Over 75 points. You're likely to see a game with around 65 possessions tonight, and again, Duke isn't an impressive defensive team. 

Play the game total at our own discretion, but focusing on Louisville is what I have in mind tonight.

Louisville vs Duke betting trend to know

El Ellis is second in college basketball in scoring over his last three games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Duke.

Louisville vs Duke game info

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