It's ACC Championship night, and we've got the title game we deserve between Louisville and Duke.
Throughout most of the season, it's been quite clear that these two teams were the best in the conference. It's played out in the conference tournament as well. Both of these teams got here in an eerily similar fashion. Duke led rival North Carolina by double-digits with just over five minutes left. They saw that lead evaporate and had to wait for a 3-point win.
As for the Cards, they led by 13 at the under-four timeout, saw that lead disappear, and won by just 3. It should be a great battle this evening, and Louisville has enough to make it very close.
Read on for my Louisville vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 15.
Who will win Louisville vs Duke?
I'm calling my shot and saying Louisville pulls off the upset. Just filtering the spread on major analytical sites for the two teams that play in Charlotte makes this game nearly a pick 'em. The Cardinals' veteran leadership is enough to expose some defensive issues left by Cooper Flagg's absence.
Louisville vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Louisville +6 (-110 at bet365)
There are many unknowns surrounding this game, which makes me inclined to lean more toward the veteran side. I'm grabbing Louisville +6 as my best bet.
For starters, these teams have important players who have logged heavy minutes in the last few games in the conference tournament. For the Louisville Cardinals, point guard Chucky Hepburn has played 39 minutes in back-to-back games for the first time this season. The Duke Blue Devils' main offensive facilitator, Kon Knueppel, has played 38 minutes in back-to-back games for the first time this season. The significant difference here is that one of these players is a senior who started every game of his college career and logged heavy minutes all season. The other? A freshman dealing with this, along with an increased usage rate, for the first time all year. You can spin it some, but this is an advantage for Louisville overall.
Secondly, Duke will again be without the services of likely number-one NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg. From a price discovery standpoint, oddsmakers are still adjusting for what this should mean for a spread. It's worth close to 4 points, and that's relatively close to the adjustments made. However, if you isolate the play of the two teams in the ACC tournament with zero priors, BarTovik makes Duke only a one-point favorite. That would mean that this should be almost a 7-point adjustment.
Now that's out of the way, let's discuss the Xs and Os of this matchup. Duke has no switchable defenders with no Cooper Flagg or Maliq Brown. That's made them an exclusively drop coverage team defensively, which is always tricky when playing a 5-out offense. Thus, naturally, it won't be easy against Louisville, one of the biggest reasons I'm leaning their way.
North Carolina attacked the lack of switchability to fuel a massive late rally, more specifically, using cutting bigs to do it. The Tar Heels posted an impressive 1.4 points per possession on bigs cutting to the basketball against Duke last night, one of their highest marks of the season. Louisville can replicate this.
The Cardinals come into this game with an effective amount of mobile frontcourt players in the form of James Scott, Noah Waterman, J'Vonne Hadley, and Aboubacar Traore. At any given time, three players (sans Scott) can make a flat-footed big play on the perimeter but exploit the lack of quickness at the rim. It's why they've ranked in the 92nd percentile on plays defended as "big cuts and rolls" this season. In other words, Louisville is tailor-made to attack Duke's current issues.
I suspect the Cardinals' offensive advantages will be the difference here. Handicapping how much the lack of legs hurts either team is always a tricky proposition, but on paper, Louisville has the advantages. I made this number 3 and would play it to 3.
Louisville vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Louisville +6
J'Vonne Hadley Over 1.5 assists
James Scott 10+ points
Kon Knueppel Over 3.5 assists
With unknowns comes value, and we're pairing up our best bet with three other elements to attack this.
These first two are self-explanatory. Scott has scored 10 points two of three times he's faced a heavy dosage of drop coverage against Clemson and North Carolina. The price of getting him to reach it here has significant value because he scored just 5 points in the lone prior meeting against Duke. However, the Blue Devils are entirely different defensively now. We added Hadley over 1.5 assists for a similar reason. This has been a go-to play for us throughout this tournament, and he's hit this number in six straight games. Given the mismatch he presents, his usage will go up.
Lastly, we rounded things off with Knueppel to go Over 3 assists. Not much has changed in this analysis. We played it yesterday; it should have hit, and we just caught some plain bad luck. I'll go back to it again. I cannot ignore an almost 20% assist rate increase without Flagg on the floor, and the Duke bigs should be able to exploit a more undersized frontcourt off of his passes.
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Louisville vs Duke odds
Louisville vs Duke live odds
Louisville vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Louisville +6 (-110) | Duke -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville +205 | Duke -250
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisville vs Duke betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 31 games (+17.85 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Duke.
How to watch Louisville vs Duke
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Saturday, 3-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Louisville vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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