Get set for a noon ET tip when the Louisville Cardinals meet the Indiana Hoosiers in the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis opening round in Nassau, Bahamas.
Both groups have had nice beginnings to their season, but my Louisville vs. Indiana predictions expect the more experienced Hoosiers to have the upper hand.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 24, and televised on ESPN.
Louisville vs Indiana prediction
My best bet
Indiana moneyline (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers hit the road for the first time this season.
Indiana is an old-school basketball team with four returning starters. The Hoosiers don’t shoot many triples, but the ball doesn’t stick, and that ball movement has led to a solid 57% effective field goal percentage.
Old-school basketball teams defend, and so do the Hoosiers. They are long on the perimeter, and opponents drain only 27% from downtown. They are also long on the block, leading to 39.5 rebounds per game.
Only a walk-on remains from a Louisville Cardinals group that hasn’t won double-digit games in two seasons. This aggressive defensive bunch is gaining 19 turnovers, which they’ve turned into 20 points per night.
Louisville relies heavily on the triple. According to KenPom, 37% of their points come from the triple. This is its first road game, and if that triple doesn’t fall, the Cardinals will have difficulties scoring against the lengthier and more experienced Hoosiers.
I didn’t lay the points with Indiana because of the Hoosiers’ turnovers and the Cardinals' triples. Both could come into play today. Louisville relies heavily on both, and it could easily keep this closer than it should be.
Indiana has experience galore, and it is long. The Hoosiers' length makes them challenging defenders, and their exquisite ball movement and likely dominance on both ends of the glass will lead them to victory
Louisville vs Indiana same-game parlay
Indiana moneyline
Under 153.5
Reyne Smith 3+ made threes
I don’t expect Louisville to have much success shooting from downtown, but Reyne Smith could and likely will rain down at least three triples.
Smith has the green light from downtown and drains 42% of his 9.5 attempts per night from downtown. The Hoosiers are tough perimeter defenders, but Smith has plenty of experience and will still get his shots off.
The tempo will probably be there, but this being the first road test for both groups alongside the Cardinals' heavy reliance on the triple leads me to the Under. Both schools are 1-3-0 to the Under, and I expect today’s tilt to follow suit.
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Louisville vs Indiana odds
Louisville vs Indiana live odds
Louisville vs Indiana opening odds
- Spread: Louisville +2.5 (-110) | Indiana -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville +114 | Indiana -127
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisville vs Indiana betting trend to know
Indiana has hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+10.50 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Indiana.
How to watch Louisville vs Indiana
| Location: | Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisville vs Indiana key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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