Loyola Chicago vs Drake Picks and Predictions: Ramblers Capture MVC Title

Going into the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, Loyola Chicago was the favorite to win the conference tournament despite its underwhelming ranking at the Four-spot. The  Ramblers knocked off Bradley and then defeated Northern Iowa in a revenge spot, 66-43 to get to the tournament’s final. 

Meanwhile, the Drake Bulldogs are the three seed and found a way to defeat both Southern Illinois and Missouri State to reach the Championship game tonight. 

Despite the absence of a one or two seed in this game, don't be fooled. Loyola Chicago has always been the favorite regardless of what the rankings say.

Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the Missouri Valley Conference Championship between the Loyola Chicago Ramblers and the Drake Bulldogs. 

Loyola Chicago vs Drake odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Loyola Chicago opened as a 4.5-point favorite and has now increased its odds to -5 at every outlet. However, the total opened at 134.5 and has been steady ever since. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Loyola Chicago vs Drake predictions

• Prediction: Loyola Chicago -5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 135 (-110)
• Best bet: Loyola Chicago -5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/6/2022 at 8:29 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Loyola Chicago vs Drake game info

• Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Sunday, March 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Loyola Chicago at Drake betting preview

Injuries

Loyola Chicago: Keith Clemons G (Questionable).
Drake: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Ramblers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Loyola Chicago vs. Drake.

Loyola Chicago vs Drake picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

As college basketball fans, we've been witness to watching Loyola Chicago's basketball program build itself up back to relevancy again. A win today will guarantee them a spot in the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years for just the second time in program history (1963-64). However, if the Ramblers don’t win today, Drake will move on to the NCAA Tournament and the Ramblers bracket-breaking aspirations will ramble no more. 

There’s so much at stake! Welcome to March!

Drake defeated Loyola Chicago at home and on the road this season. On the road, Drake captured an 83-76 win and followed it up with a 77-68 win at home. 

The public is going to love Loyola Chicago, as they always do. But Drake has been a tough matchup for the Ramblers this season. 

The Ramblers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.8% while shooting 38.5% from deep and 56.1% from inside the arc. Offensive rebounds are hard to come by with Loyola Chicago averaging just 25% offensive rebounds on the season. 

Turnovers can also get high at 18.2% but Loyola Chicago is still above average at getting to the foul line, where it knocks down 71.9% of its shots. 

Defensively, Drake has been good at slowing the pace of the game, forcing opponents to use 18.3 seconds per possession this season. The Bulldogs have earned 19.6% turnovers and have held opponents to 25.9% offensive rebounds. Drake will foul and send opponents to the line at a high rate and ultimately have been an average defensive team this year, allowing teams to shoot 33.3% from three and 49.3% from inside the arc. 

On the other hand, Drake won’t get to the line as much as Loyola Chicago and has shot the three poorly this season, hitting just 32.6% attempts this season. From inside, Drake is shooting 52%, which is really the area they try to produce most of their offense. 

The Bulldogs also earn 30.6% offensive rebounds and keep turnovers to 15.7% per game. However, Loyola Chicago has been an incredible defense, holding opponents to 23.7% offensive rebounds while earning 20% of turnovers. Teams are shooting just 31.7% from three and 47.1% from inside the arc against the Ramblers. 

It’s extremely hard to beat a team three times, especially one of Loyola Chicago’s caliber. In the postseason, the Ramblers have looked extremely good and I don’t expect them to slow down today. 

Prediction: Loyola Chicago -5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Loyola Chicago has been a very good defensive team this season. The Ramblers just held Northern Iowa to 43 points, which was 30 fewer than Northern Iowa’s average this season. 

The defense looks prepared and active for the Ramblers. Via KenPom, the Ramblers are still 26th in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency. As long as the offensive rebounds are limited from both sides, this game will wind up going under the total. 

In championship games, it takes two teams to be elite on the offensive end to earn the over. A lot of the time, there are stretches in games where teams can’t buy a bucket. A mix of pressure and tired legs is a recipe for scoring droughts on both ends of the floor. 

With all that said, I'm rolling with the Under.

Prediction: Under 135 (-110)

Best bet

I’m sticking with Loyola Chicago as the best bet. The Ramblers might not make the NCAA Tournament without a win, yet per KenPom, the Ramblers are 35th in the nation offensively and 26th in the nation defensively. 

If they’re able to win today’s game, the Ramblers could easily put together a wild run in the NCAA Tournament again this year. 

Balanced teams will do that. Drake isn’t anywhere close to the elite level that Loyola Chicago is per the analytics. 

I’ll ride Loyola and take the square pick.

Pick: Loyola Chicago -5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic