The SEC schedule is shrinking, putting pressure on programs to finish strong before the postseason tips off. Two of those teams jockeying for position in the conference pecking order clash when the LSU Tigers visit the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.
The Razorbacks are coming off a marquee win over Kentucky and making a late push for the SEC regular season crown, winning four in a row (3-0-1 ATS) heading into this homestand. The Tigers, on the other hand, haven’t had much success hitting the highway, going 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) in road conference games.
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for LSU at Arkansas on Wednesday, March 2.
LSU vs Arkansas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Razorbacks hit the board as 5.5-point home favorites and have bounced between that spread and -5 as of Wednesday morning. The total opened as low as 139.5 and has climbed to 141.5 with an early play on the Over, forcing that two-point adjustment.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
LSU vs Arkansas predictions
Predictions made on 3/2/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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LSU vs Arkansas game info
• Location: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AK
• Date: Wednesday, March 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
LSU at Arkansas betting preview
Injuries
LSU: None
Arkansas: None
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Razorbacks are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Arkansas.
LSU vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Arkansas has taken bettors on a magical money tour during SEC play, going 12-4 straight-up and 11-5 against the spread versus conference competition this season. That includes a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS mark inside Bud Walton Arena.
The Hogs just missed out on covering as 2.5-point home chalk in their 75-73 victory over Kentucky on Saturday, blowing a 13-point lead and then holding off the UK push for the win. That taxing effort sets up Arkansas for a potential letdown spot against LSU tonight.
However, the Tigers are one of the most two-faced teams in the SEC. Louisiana State’s offensive production dips nearly 12 points when playing in rival gyms, lugging an efficiency rating of 0.923 (compared to 1.073 at home), when playing on the road.
That ineptitude as a visitor (shooting 40.4% away from Baton Rouge), is compounded by turnover troubles, with Will Wade’s team coughing up the ball more than 15 times per road appearance. The Tigers have tightened the bolts a bit in recent outings but take on a Razorbacks team that thrives on chaos.
Arkansas sits 46th in steals (8.8 per home game), and forces 15.6 turnovers an outing inside its own arena while ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency overall at KenPom.com. The Razorbacks forced the Tigers into 16 turnovers in their previous meeting inside the Pete Maravich Assembly Center, checking LSU to 38% shooting overall in a 65-58 road win on January 15.
A lot has changed since then. That win over Louisiana State was the second victory of a nine-game winning run for Arkansas, which is now 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS since January 12.
Prediction: Arkansas -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
These SEC foes rank Top 15 in defensive efficiency but also boast up-tempo attacks that like to push the ball and shoot early into the shot clock.
Arkansas is extremely aggressive in the open court and attacks the rim, drawing almost 20 fouls per game and getting to the line an average of 22.6 times — cashing in almost 17 of those freebies per contest. Louisiana State’s turnover troubles will spark the Hogs in transition and have LSU playing on its heels and out of position. The Tigers get whistled for 20.5 personal fouls per road game and have watched opponents collect 21.8% of their total points from the stripe (333rd).
In the last matchup with Arkansas, LSU committed 21 personal fouls and the Hogs went 14-for-18 from the foul line. Against the up-tempo attack of Kentucky last Wednesday, the Tigers were called for 25 fouls and sent Kentucky to the line 32 times (with the Wildcats making 23 of those attempts).
There will be a lot of scoring with the clock stopped this evening, which will push the final score Over the total.
Prediction: Over 141 (-110)
Best bet
A play on the Over is confidence in Arkansas’ offensive attack, as LSU’s road efforts are spotty at best. Thankfully, we can isolate the Hogs and take the Over on their team total, which sits at 73.5 points.
The Razorbacks average almost 80 points per home game on the season and have topped this mark in three of their last four outings during this current win streak. If the Hogs defense can create the chaos it wants, there will be plenty of extra possessions on the offensive end.
On top of scoring in transition and getting to the foul line, Arkansas is also a threat on the offensive glass and grabs almost 10 offensive rebounds an outing. Louisiana State isn’t great at wiping the windows on the defensive side, giving up an average of 9.4 offensive boards to rivals.
The Razorbacks sit 15th in extra scoring chances in the country and will have plenty of opportunities to top this team total tonight.
Pick: Over Arkansas Team Total 73.5 (-106)
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