LSU vs Auburn Picks and Predictions: Welcome to the Jungle

It’s late December, and you know what that means! It’s time for conference play all around the country. Tonight, the LSU Tigers will take on the Auburn Tigers in an SEC showdown. 

LSU concluded their non-conference play with a 12-0 record. However, the Tigers never really faced any tough opponents. Meanwhile, Auburn has just one loss on the year and has been tested a little bit more so far. 

I can guarantee that a Tigers team will win tonight. Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for LSU vs Auburn on Wednesday, December 29.

LSU vs Auburn odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Auburn opened as a 4-point favorite against LSU as the home team. Some books have now moved the line to -4.5 but there are still 4s available. 

The total has also seen minimal line movement. It opened at 140 and is currently still sitting at 140. However, a couple of books have gone to 140.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

LSU vs Auburn predictions

• Prediction: LSU +4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 140.5 (-120)
• Best bet: LSU +4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 12/29/2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

LSU vs Auburn game info

• Location: Auburn Arena, Auburn, AL
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

LSU at Auburn betting preview

Injuries

LSU: Shareef O’Neil F (Out), Justice Williams G (Out), Adam Miller G (Out).
Auburn: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

LSU Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Auburn.

LSU vs Auburn picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

There’s plenty of offensive firepower between these two teams. But we have to mention how great both sides have been on the defensive end first.  

LSU is currently the top team in defensive adjusted efficiency via KenPom. LSU has held teams to just a 40.2% effective field goal percentage while earning 26.8% turnovers on the season. 

Opponents are shooting 25.9% against the LSU Tigers and 41.3% from inside the arc. Both of those numbers are Top-20 in college basketball. The LSU Tigers also don’t foul very often and should be able to keep Auburn off the line in this game. The rebounding battle between LSU and Auburn is pretty even, especially when LSU is on defense. However, on offense, LSU has a slight advantage on the offensive glass, bringing down 34.9% of offensive rebounds. 

Auburn is still one of the better defenses in the country, holding opponents to a 44.6% effective field goal percentage. Auburn also earns 22.7% turnovers and forces difficult shots, holding opponents to just 32.2% from long range and 42.5% from inside the arc. 

But if we’re looking at both offenses, LSU has the slight edge. The LSU Tigers should be able to earn more second chances while also getting to the line at a higher rate, even on the road. Auburn has done a better job limiting turnovers and that’s one area where LSU needs to improve, but overall, LSU is shooting 53.4% from inside the arc and 76% from the foul line. 

Plus, Auburn’s defense against the three-point shot has been worse in comparison to LSU’s. Teams are shooting, again, 25.9% from deep against LSU and 32.2% against Auburn. 

So, give me LSU +4.5. I see this as an even matchup, but LSU is getting four points.

Prediction: LSU +4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

I just spoke about how both of these two defenses have been extremely valuable this season. I think that continues going into this game. 

I’m aware that both teams like to move at a fast pace and score quickly, but in the first SEC game of the season, I’m expecting a couple of poor stretches from both teams offensively, as both teams should be able to earn some turnovers and defend at a high rate throughout the game. 

Give me the under 140.5. But this one is certainly tough. I think the line is pretty much spot on. 

Prediction: Under 140.5 (-120)

Best bet

I’m sticking with LSU +4.5. This game is pretty much even. Despite Auburn being at home, I like LSU to win the rebounding battle and earn more chances at the line. 

Between those two keys, if LSU wins both of those battles, they’ll end up winning the game outright. But I’ll add some security and just take the points.

Pick: LSU +4.5 (-110)

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