The Kentucky Wildcats haven’t lost many games this season and have dropped just three conference contests – one of which came on the road against the LSU Tigers back on January 4.
Kentucky can avenge that rare defeat Wednesday when it welcomes Louisiana State to Rupp Arena as a 7.5-point NCAA basketball betting favorite. The Tigers are playing their second straight away game after collapsing at South Carolina on the weekend and have had trouble on the road, winning just three of nine away games this season.
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for LSU at Kentucky on February 23.
LSU vs Kentucky odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kentucky opened between -7 and -7.5 but a market consensus of -7.5 has settled in as of Wednesday morning. As for the total, the number hit the board at 142 points and has climbed to 143 with early play on the Over. Some books are dealing 142.5 Over/Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
LSU vs Kentucky predictions
- Prediction: Kentucky -7.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Kentucky TT Over 75.5 (-102)
Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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LSU vs Kentucky game info
• Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
LSU at Kentucky betting preview
Injuries
LSU: No injuries to report.
Kentucky: Sahvir Wheeler G (Questionable), TyTy Washington G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Kentucky.
LSU vs Kentucky picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Tigers may have gotten a little lucky with that 65-60 win over UK earlier in the SEC schedule. The Wildcats lost both Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington to injury during that game and left plenty of points on the table due to a 10-for-20 effort from the free-throw line.
As fate would have it, both Wheeler and Washington run the risk of sitting out this rematch with Louisiana State. However, the Wildcats have plenty of depth and have proven they can manage without that talented combo in the backcourt.
Kentucky brings momentum into this home stand off a come-from-behind win against rival Alabama on Saturday, clawing its way back from 13 points down against a very explosive Crimson Tide attack. Blown leads are all too familiar to LSU and coach Will Wade, who botched not one but two double-digit leads to the Gamecocks.
The Tigers were trampled in transition by South Carolina and now face one of the quickest and most aggressive offensive attacks in the country. Kentucky can get up and down the floor in a blink and has multiple finishers, boasting the No. 4 offensive efficiency rating in the land and putting up an average scoring margin of +23.5 inside Rupp Arena, where it is 16-0 SU (9-7 ATS) this season.
That pace of play as well as a frenzied crowd won’t bode well for LSU, which has been bitten by ball control issues. The Tigers turned the ball over 14 times in the loss to South Carolina, coughed it up 15 times in the last meeting with UK, and have averaged almost 16 turnovers on the road. That’s throwing gas on the fire for the Wildcats defense, which will translate those mistakes into fast-break buckets.
Prediction: Kentucky -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Picking up where we left off with the spread, those costly LSU turnovers and UK’s transition attack doesn’t allow the Tigers to get set on defense and leads to plenty of personal fouls.
Louisiana State gets whistled more than 19 times per game on the season, and that jumps to 20.1 times on the road. Opponents are heading to the foul line an average of 20.2 times, increasing to 23 over the past three contests, including 22 FTA from South Carolina on Saturday.
Kentucky isn’t an automatic team from the stripe, shooting 73% from the line, but will knock down more than the 10 freebies it mustered back in the bayou on January 4. That means plenty of scoring with the clock stopped.
When Louisiana State does slow the Kentucky tempo, it has to deal with talented forward Oscar Tshiebwe in the halfcourt set. The 6-foot-9 native of the Congo is a beast inside, averaging 16 points and 15 rebounds while getting to the foul line 4.5 times per game.
Early foul trouble slowed Tshiebwe in the first meeting with LSU but he’ll be a handful on the offensive glass against a Tigers defense that allows an average of 9.3 offensive boards to slip away. Kentucky is one of the top teams in second-chance scoring and posts more than seven chances per home game.
Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
Best bet
Louisiana State is not only playing its second straight road game but also its fourth away tilt in the past 19 days on Wednesday.
The Tigers are No. 3 in defensive efficiency in the country at KenPom.com but have allowed some bigger scores to host teams during conference play, which has led to four straight Over finishes in their last four roadies.
Kentucky piles on the points at home, posting 14 more tallies inside Rupp Arena compared to playing in enemy territory. Even with missing depth in Wheeler and Washington (who are game-time decisions but could be held out in prep for Saturday’s trip to Arkansas), UK has effective options in Davion Mintz, Kellan Grady, and Jacob Toppin. That trio combined for 45 points in the win over Alabama.
Bookmakers have UK’s team total set at 75.5 points for tonight – a number Kentucky has easily topped in six of its last eight games overall and all but one of its 16 home outings this season.
Pick: Kentucky team total Over 75.5 (-102)
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