While they haven’t been able to beat a ranked team so far this season, the 19th-ranked Texas Longhorns have feasted on the lesser-lights in their early schedule.
On Saturday, the soon-to-be SEC school will face a current member of the conference, when they battle the unranked LSU Tigers at the Honda Center in Houston.
The ‘Horns are sturdy seven-point favorites in the college basketball odds, taking on a Tigers’ squad that’s alternated wins and losses in their last five.
Check below for my free college basketball picks and best bet for LSU vs. Texas on Saturday, December 16.
LSU vs Texas best odds
LSU vs Texas picks and predictions
The Longhorns tumbled from 12th to 19th in the rankings when they were stopped by the eighth-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles 86-85.
But Texas did bounce back nicely, thumping Houston Christian 77-50 last time out.
Against ranked opponents (they dropped an earlier meeting to fifth-ranked UConn), the Longhorns are losing by an average of 15.5 points, their only losses on the year.
However, they’ve drilled all other competition. The only non-blowout win against a non-ranked team was an 81-80 decision against Louisville.
Even factoring that win into the equation, their average margin of victory in their seven wins this year is 20.7 points.
They do it with an offense that scores 79 points per game, which is inside the Top 100 in the nation, while shooting 48.9% from the field, which ranks 34th.
Defensively, they are holding teams to 66.3 points per game (74th) on 39.8% shooting from the field (54th). They’re also inside the Top 20 in blocks, swatting nearly 3.5 per contest.
If there’s one place LSU can match the ‘Horns, it’s on the defensive side of the ball, where it’s 33rd in field-goal shooting defense, holding teams to 39.1% shooting and 68.7 points per game.
After getting thumped by 15 to Kansas State, the Tigers rebounded last time out against Alabama State, tightening the grips in a 74-56 win. The Hornets could muster just 36.1% shooting from the field.
I think defense reigns in this matchup, helped along by the 12pm ET start time. Both of these teams have consistently gone Under the total, with LSU going Under in five straight, and Texas failing to cross the point total in their last three.
My best bet: Under 142 (-110 at DraftKings)
LSU vs Texas same-game parlay
Under 142
Max Abmas Under 3.5 3-pointers
Will Baker Under 12.5 points
Who’s in for a brunchtime same-game parlay?
Let’s start with Texas’ leading scorer and sharpshooter Max Abmas. The Oral Roberts transfer has slid seamlessly into the Longhorns lineup, putting up 17.6 points per game on 47.2% from the field.
Abmas has also taken nearly twice as many triples as any teammate, and delivered at a 40.6% clip. The senior has hit at least two moneyballs in every game this season, and is coming off a 2-for-5 effort from distance against HCU last game.
I just feel the number is a little high, as Abmas has only crossed 3.5 makes from beyond the arc twice in nine games this season.
LSU is just inside the Top-300 in 3-point shooting defense, but even in their last five games, just one player has had four or more 3-pointers. It is the season of giving, and they spread the hits equally down their opponents’ roster.
We’ve already targeted this one as a potential rock fight, so imagine my delight seeing LSU big man Will Baker’s scoring line at 12.5 points.
He’s coming off a 3-for-9 effort for six points against Alabama State. In fact, he has totaled 17 points in three of his last four games.
The lone exception was in a win over Southeast Louisiana, where he had 18 points, but that’s a school that ranks 302nd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric.
Look for Baker to have his troubles against a strong Longhorns’ defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread hasn’t dipped below 6.5 points, with some books pegging the ‘Horns as long as 7.5-point favorites. Both of these teams have struggled to cover the spread, though.
Texas is 2-7-0 against the spread this year, while LSU is 3-7-0 ATS.
As for the total, there’s variety, just depending where you want to shop. The lowest number you’ll find is 142 points, but some books have moved it as high as 143.5.
These two schools have better totals records, but that just means they’re hovering around .500.
The Over has hit in just four of LSU’s games this season, while Texas’ Over record is 4-5-0.
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LSU vs Texas betting trend to know
Eleven of LSU's last 12 games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues have produced a total of 142 or fewer points. Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Texas.
Not intended for use in MA.
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LSU vs Texas game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN2 |
LSU vs Texas key injuries
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