It’s a huge Sunday for women’s NCAA hoops. In the SEC, the LSU Tigers visit the Texas Longhorns in a clash of Top 5 programs.
Bookies have the Longhorns set as 9-point home chalk, which may seem like a lot considering we’re talking about schools ranked No. 3 and No. 5 in the country. However, the Longhorns’ defense is the difference-maker in this SEC showdown.
Here are my best LSU vs. Texas predictions and free betting picks for February 16.
LSU vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Under 152.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This Sunday SEC showcase will feel more like a Final Four matchup. The winner of this game has the inside track to the top seed in the conference and will get a massive boost to their NCAA Tournament resume.
With that intensity in mind, I’m already leaning Under the game total.
Texas seems to be a perfect foil for LSU. The Longhorns’ defense doesn’t give an inch on the outside, playing heels above the 3-point arc and jumping passing lanes to disrupt the offense, generating more than 11 steals an outing while forcing almost 22 turnovers per game.
Inside, the Longhorns have size and strength and do a good job cleaning the glass, giving up the second-fewest rebounds per game allowed in the country. Keeping the Tigers from snatching offensive rebounds is vital to the Horns’ success.
Louisiana State hasn’t played away from home much in recent weeks, but in its last three road stops it has shot a collective 77-for-208 (37%) from the floor, including 14-for-44 from beyond the arc (32%).
Not to be outdone, Kim Mulkey’s team can hold its own on defense. LSU has found itself in more shootouts than defensive grinders, but it holds rival offenses to 36.4% shooting and 0.71 points per possession.
The Tigers come into this game with a notable rest edge, having enjoyed a bye week after beating Tennessee last Sunday. Texas, on the other hand, was on the court as recently as Thursday’s win at Kentucky.
The Longhorns could show a little wear and tear on the offensive end, especially if they can’t score points on turnovers and are forced to play extended possessions in the halfcourt set.
This total opened as high as 155.5 on Sunday morning and took instant action to the Under. The number has since dropped to 152.5 O/U, which is still on the high side considering the playoff-like atmosphere in Austin.
LSU vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 152.5
Texas moneyline
The Longhorns' defense won’t let LSU’s outside shooters get hot and will keep the Tigers from second-chance looks on the offensive glass.
Texas is trending toward being a 10-point favorite, but with the Tigers having a rest and prep edge I am expecting a closer game. However, the Horns should come through at home nonetheless.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Texas odds
- Spread: LSU +9.5 | Texas -9.5
- Moneyline: LSU +350 | Texas -450
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
LSU vs Texas betting trend to know
The Longhorns’ last eight matchups with ranked opponents have produced an average combined score of 136 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Texas.
How to watch LSU vs Texas
| Location | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 2-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
LSU vs Texas key injuries
LSU: Flau'Jae Johnson (questionable), Izzy Besselman (out).
Texas: Laila Phelia (out), Aaliyah Moore (out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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