After two great regular season meetings, the Marquette Golden Eagles will face off with the St. John’s Red Storm for a third time in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden on Friday night.
The Red Storm found ways to win and cover in each of those regular season battles, and I’m predicting they’ll beat the spread again in my Marquette vs. St. John’s predictions.
Let’s break down what should be a great conference tournament showdown in my free college basketball picks for Friday, March 14.
Who will win Marquette vs St. John's?
The Marquette Golden Eagles have already proven this season that they may be the biggest threat to the St. John’s Red Storm in the Big East, taking the Red Storm down to the wire in both meetings. However, that didn’t result in any wins for Marquette, and St. John’s has now won 17 of its last 18 games and has been on an absolute tear through the conference schedule. This will be another good game, but I’m picking St. John’s to win.
Marquette vs St. John's prediction
My best bet: St. John's -4 (-110 at bet365)
St. John’s hasn’t been to the final of the Big East Tournament since 2000, but the Red Storm are favored to do so tonight against a Marquette team that gave them all they could handle in the regular season. While St. John’s won both games these teams played, they were both close, making this an interesting matchup to approach as a bettor.
If we’re looking for a clear differentiation between these teams, we have to consider St. John’s defense. The Red Storm have held opponents to 40% shooting from the field and 66 points per game, an impressively low total considering that Rick Pitino has his team running the court and pushing the pace of most games. As good as the raw numbers are, analytical approaches give St. John’s even more credit, with KenPom.com ranking it second in adjusted defensive rating.
Marquette has been able to contend with this thanks to its excellent balance. While the Golden Eagles aren’t elite at any one thing, they play offense and defense at a solid NCAA Tournament level. Kam Jones (19.2 ppg) is an elite scoring threat, and he has three additional teammates scoring over 10 ppg.
But that hasn’t been enough to get Marquette over the hump against St. John’s. The first time these teams met this season – also at Madison Square Garden – the Red Storm held the Golden Eagles to just 64 points. Most impressively, Marquette shot just 29% from the field in the second half, thanks to what Shaka Smart called “incredible violence” from the St. John’s defense.
I expect Pitino to get that same level of intensity out of his team for 40 minutes on Friday. St. John’s covered in both games during the regular season, and I’m taking the Red Storm to cover again in the third matchup.
Marquette vs St. John's same-game parlay (SGP)
St. Johns -3.5
Under 143.5
RJ Luis Over 18.5 points
I’ll take St. John’s to cover as the basis of my same-game parlay, giving a half-point less without changing the value of the bet much. Along with that, I’m going to take the Under. While both teams average totals around 143.5, and the first two meetings this year have gone in opposite directions in terms of the total, I’m counting on the Red Storm defense to keep this game tight in a major tournament situation.
On the offensive side of the ball, I’m going to pick St. John’s guard RJ Luis Jr. to hit the Over on his scoring total of 18.5 points. Luis has hit that total in four straight games and also scored 28 points in last week’s win over Marquette. He’ll likely remain a key cog in the St. John’s offense throughout their postseason run, and that makes the Over a play I love here.
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Marquette vs St. John's odds
Marquette vs St. John's live odds
Marquette vs St. John's opening odds
- Spread: Marquette -4.5 | St. John's -4.5
- Moneyline: Marquette +165 | St. John's -200
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Marquette vs St. John's betting trend to know
St. John’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. St. John's.
How to watch Marquette vs St. John's
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Marquette vs St. John's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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