Marquette vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: History Favors a High-Scoring 40 Minutes

The two hottest teams in the Big East Tournament will face off on Friday when the Connecticut Huskies take on the Marquette Golden Eagles at Madison Square Garden.

No. 11 UConn (25-7) has won six straight and beat the Providence Friars yesterday in the Big East quarterfinals. No. 6 Marquette (26-6) has won seven in a row but needed overtime to get past St. John’s in its quarterfinal matchup.

Marquette may be higher ranked and the top seed in the Big East Tournament, but it is the Huskies who come in as the favorites in tonight’s matchup. We’ll break down what to expect in our college basketball picks and predictions for Connecticut vs. Marquette on March 10.

Marquette vs UConn best odds

Marquette vs UConn picks and predictions

While both the Huskies and the Golden Eagles have been playing well as of late, each had to survive a scare in the quarterfinals on Thursday. Marquette came back after falling behind by 14 points in the first half to beat St. John’s, while Connecticut saw a 26-point lead over Providence nearly evaporate in the second half before hanging on to win.

As long as there’s no carryover, neither team should be too concerned about their close calls, as these were two of the best teams in the country over the second half of the season. Marquette won 17 of its last 19 games, while UConn has rebounded from a mid-season slump to win nine of its last 10. In particular, the Huskies have established themselves as one of the best and most well-rounded teams in the country.

Connecticut scores 79 points per game while holding opponents to an average of just 64.8 points. Teams playing against the Huskies are shooting just 29.7% from 3-point range, and UConn is among the most efficient defensive teams in the country, giving up just .918 points per possession.

Marquette can play on both sides of the ball as well, though the Golden Eagles have really shined on offense. They’re scoring 81 points per game and are among the best shooting teams in the country, making 49.5% of their shots from the field.

KenPom sees Marquette as the eighth most efficient offense in the nation, with Connecticut right behind them at No. 10. Both times that these teams played in the regular season, the offenses dominated. Marquette won the first matchup on January 11, beating Connecticut 82-76. UConn returned the favor in February, handing the Golden Eagles their only loss in their last 13 games in an 87-72 win for the Huskies.

For those keeping score at home, those games had totals of 158 and 159. Tonight’s game has an Over/Under of just 146.5 as of noon on Friday. That doesn’t necessarily mean the total is wrong. I expected Marquette to play a shootout with St. John’s, only to watch them not even get to the number on Thursday after overtime.

Perhaps the Connecticut defense will once again slow down the Golden Eagles. On the other hand, Marquette had one of its worst shooting performances of the year on Thursday, and we can’t expect them to shoot 39.1% from the field again. The Golden Eagles also went just 9-for-34 from downtown. 

That performance is probably influencing the total on today’s game, but I wouldn’t put much stock into it. These teams can both put up points and have already done it twice against each other this year. 

I’m taking the Over in this matchup.

My best bet: Over 146.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Marquette vs UConn spread analysis

Connecticut opened tonight’s game as 3.5-point favorites. Bettors seem pretty happy with that line, as UConn -3.5 is still the consensus spread across the industry.

Both teams have been monsters against the spread this season. The Huskies are 21-10-1 against the spread on the year, while Marquette has been nearly as impressive at 19-12-1 ATS. Marquette may have the better rankings and the better record this year, but all the advanced metrics favor Connecticut in this matchup. KenPom, Sagarin, and even the NCAA’s own NET rankings all place UConn head of Marquette on the season. 

That’s likely because the Huskies have a couple of excellent non-conference wins on their resume, including a 15-point victory over Alabama on a neutral court. I agree that UConn is the better team here, thanks mostly to its ability to play shutdown defense in a way that Marquette struggles to do.

However, these two teams have already split a couple of games this season, and the Golden Eagles have been red hot. That makes it hard for me to see much of an edge for either team here heading into the game.

With that in mind, I’m happy to take the points with Marquette. I would also consider just taking the Golden Eagles on the moneyline, where you can currently get odds as high as +146.

Marquette vs UConn Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 147, with some books starting even higher. However, that number has come down a bit, with the consensus Over/Under settling at 146.5. Connecticut has actually played to the Under in its last three games, though those were against some pretty mediocre offensive teams in Providence, Villanova, and DePaul Blue Demons.

Marquette has gone up and down against the total, though they ended up well Under against St. John’s in that fluky game yesterday — one in which the total was a full 48 points lower than the last time the two teams played each other. In general, the Golden Eagles play to an average total of 152.3, while UConn has averaged 143.8 points per game.

We’ve already seen these numbers go up when these two teams play each other, likely because Marquette is good enough to score against the Connecticut defense but can’t stop Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and the rest of the Huskies' offense in return.

I’ve seen enough from these two teams to expect a similar game to the first two, which likely means a total somewhere in the 150s. I’m taking the Over in tonight’s game.

Marquette vs UConn betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Marquette’s last five games against teams with winning records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. UConn.

Marquette vs UConn game info

Marquette vs UConn key injuries

Pages related to this topic