It’s Senior Night in East Lansing as the Michigan State Spartans (19-11) host the Maryland Terrapins (15-15) in both squads’ last game of the regular season.
The Spartans are amid a freefall, having dropped seven of their last nine games. They’ll hope to turn things around against a .500 Maryland team looking to avoid its first losing season in over 25 years.
Will Tom Izzo’s squad be able to break out of its funk as March enters full swing, or will the Terps play spoiler on the road?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Maryland Terrapins and Michigan State Spartans on Sunday, March 6 to find out.
Maryland vs Michigan State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Michigan State is a -6 favorite at home. This line is current as of Saturday night, where it has remained since the opener a few hours beforehand. The total dropped a half-point after opening at 143, currently sitting at 142.5 across most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Maryland vs Michigan State predictions
- Prediction: Michigan State -6 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Michigan State -6 (-110)
Predictions made on 3/6/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maryland vs Michigan State game info
• Location: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Sunday, March-6, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Maryland at Michigan State betting preview
Injuries
Maryland: James Graham III F (Out).
Michigan State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Terrapins are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Maryland vs. Michigan State.
Maryland vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Strange things seem to happen in East Lansing when the calendar flips to March. Tom Izzo is infamous for conjuring madness this time of year, but he and the Spartans have their work cut out for them after falling behind in the Big Ten standings due to a recent cold spell.
Since last playing Maryland back on Feb. 1, Michigan State has lost seven of its last nine games. The Spartans will hope for better on Senior night.
That first meeting came down to the wire, with the Spartans winning on a layup with only 1.9 seconds remaining. This time around they have home-court advantage, a considerable edge given their 11-3 SU record at home. The Terps have struggled on the road this season with a 3-6 SU record away from home.
Maryland has been playing its best basketball of the season lately and could use a win to avoid its first losing season in over 25 years. Fatts Russell has emerged as a threat every time he steps on the court, averaging over 20 points per game over the last seven contests. Eric Ayala averages 14.4 points per night and Donta Scott and Qudus Wahab form a solid presence down low.
The Terps have been hot, going 5-1 ATS over their last six games. They’ve found a groove and are not the same team as they were in the initial meeting back on Feb. 1.
It’s Senior Night for the Spartans, but that doesn’t ensure a cover against the spread. That being said, Michigan State is the better team and will be motivated to put on a good performance to cap the regular season to build momentum for the conference tournament.
The Spartans are the superior team (43rd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, well ahead of 81st Maryland) and this is a short enough number that we’ll ride with the favorite.
Prediction: Michigan State -6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams have been relatively neutral when it comes to going Over or Under the total this season. The Terps are 14-15-1 to the Over, while Michigan State is 15-14-1.
The Spartans play at the 138th-fastest pace in the country, according to KenPom. The Terps like to slow the ball down a bit more, ranking 213rd.
These two teams sailed under the total of 137.5 in the first meeting, but we’re unsure if history repeats itself. Neither squad sports a particularly fearsome defense.
The Terps rank outside the Top 100 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, while the Spartans are 58th. The Terps rank 164th in field goal defense and 278th in defending the three, which should welcome scoring.
Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110)
Best bet
It’s March, and a Tom Izzo team will be hosting Senior Night.
The Spartans will be eager to break out of an ugly funk before heading to the conference tournament. The Terps aren’t going to roll over, but they’re slightly outmatched on both ends of the court.
Pick: Michigan State -6 (-110)
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