The No. 4-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the Memphis Tigers in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.
The Tigers might be just outside the latest AP Top 25 poll but they've won six games in a row and face off against a Bama side that could be in a letdown spot after beating No. 1 Houston over the weekend.
College basketball odds opened with the Tide installed as 7.5-point home favorites before shortening to -7. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Alabama.
Memphis vs Alabama best odds
Memphis vs Alabama picks and predictions
The total for this game opened at 147 and has already surged up to 152 but that looks like a bit of a market overreaction.
The Tide play at a very fast pace but they also rank outside of the Top 300 in turnover rate and shoot just 42.2% from the field.
Sure that poor shooting is partially due to the tough recent run of foes they have faced but things won't get any easier against Memphis. The Tigers are 20th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and are 64th in opponent turnover rate.
That said, the Tide have been excellent defensively as well and are limiting foes to just 36.7% shooting from the field. They are fresh off an upset victory against Houston where they held the Cougars to just 21 points in the final 17 minutes of the game. This is a team that has massively improved on defense and is currently 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency after ranking 92nd last season.
The Tigers had the energy and athleticism to score inside at will against Auburn on Sunday but they won't have the same success against Bama on the road.
My best bet: Under 152 (-109 at Coolbet)
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Memphis vs Alabama spread analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide have surged in the rankings after knocking off No. 1 Houston on the road on Saturday. They entered that contest as 9-point underdogs and trailed by as many as 15 points in the second half but rallied to win 71-65 thanks to some strong defensive play.
They are now 8-1 SU (5-3-1 ATS) with their lone defeat coming against the UConn Huskies, who are currently No. 3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Memphis is also coming off its biggest win of the year beating No. 11 Auburn 82-73 on neutral ground. Memphis dominated Auburn inside, boasting a +11 rebounding margin and outscoring them 50-24 in the paint.
That was the sixth win in a row for Penny Hardaway's squad, who have already played against three SEC teams and gone 3-0 SU and ATS.
Transfer guard Kendric Davis — who was named AAC Player of the Year last season — leads Memphis with 18.4 points and 4.9 assists per game. Senior forward DeAndre Williams has also impressed with 14.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg and 3.0 apg.
The Tigers' backcourt depth will also get a boost from Damaria Franklin, who was just ruled eligible after transferring to the school in August after earning All-Horizon League honors at UIC.
The Tide have been getting massive contributions from a trio of freshmen led by five-star recruit Brandon Miller, who leads the team with 17.9 points and 8.4 rpg.
Experienced guards Mark Sears (14.4 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Jahvon Quinnerly (team-high 4.0 apg) pull the strings in the backcourt while 7-foot center Charles Bediako averages 6.7 rebounds and 2.1 blocks in just 21 minutes per game.
This is a very deep Alabama lineup that has nine players averaging more than 16 mpg. The Tide have been dominant on the boards, where they rank fourth in the country in rebounding rate but they need to do a better job of taking care of the ball and converting at the line (69.8 FT%).
Memphis vs Alabama Over/Under analysis
I've already outlined why I think the Under 152 is the best bet for this game but it's easy to see why the total has ticked up.
The Tide love to push the pace and are 24th in the country in adjusted tempo while the Tigers rank 105th in that category. The recent betting trends also point towards the Over with Memphis cashing the Over in four straight road games and Alabama going 4-1 O/U in its previous five games at home.
However, there's plenty of reason to think that won't be the case here. The Tigers struggle to knock down shots from the outside ranking outside the Top 300 in 3-pointers made per game (5.7) at a 32.8% clip. Meanwhile, the Tide limit foes to just 29.7% shooting from beyond the arc and the Tigers also do a good job of closing out perimeter shooters.
It's also worth mentioning that the leading scorers for both schools have not been efficient. Miller is shooting 37.9% from the field and went 0-8 from the field against Houston after shooting 4-for-21 against North Carolina two weeks ago.
Davis averaged 19.4 ppg with a 53.1 EFG% and 2.7 turnovers per game at SMU last season but has a 44.1 EFG% with 3.4 turnovers per game this year.
Memphis vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Alabama.
Memphis vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 13, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
