Virginia has had a few underwhelming performances to start the season and is getting used to life without legendary head coach Tony Bennett.
But things are worse in Villanova and they may go further downhill, as I explain in my Villanova vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for Friday, November 15.
Virginia vs Villanova prediction
My best bet
Virginia +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Things have started terribly for the Villanova Wildcats and Kyle Neptune this season. It came at a time when Neptune could ill afford it, which sparked honest conversations about his job security.
Teams with continuity have had an outsized advantage early in the season, and the Wildcats have become the poster child example of that when it lost as 27.5-point favorites to Columbia on the opening night of the college basketball season – a team that ranked first in continuity coming into the season.
It's a story here, too, as the Virginia Cavaliers have a reasonably decisive advantage in minutes continuity, with players like Taine Murray and Isaac McKneely being key contributors. However, the real edge in this game is a firm belief that Virginia can impose its style on Villanova, and the Wildcats show little ability to do anything about it.
Of the four games Villanova has played this season, it's within a possession of the average possession amount for its opponent. In other words, in 75% of the games the Wildcats have played this season, the opponent has been able to successfully dictate the pace.
Villanova wants to be a team that plays moderately fast. As most anyone knows, Virginia wants to play at a snail's pace. They should be able to make that happen tonight, as I projected 63 possessions. Virginia went 8-1 in games with 64 possessions or fewer last season.
In general, I worry about Villanova's ability to score enough here. This is so often the story when playing the Cavs, but it's a little more true in this matchup.
Villanova has had a massive advantage on the offensive backboard over the last four games, ranking 23rd in college basketball in offensive rebounding. This has enabled them to create a good deal of second-chance points. They won't get those tonight.
A staple of Virginia basketball is defensive rebounding. They've been elite at it for quite a long time, and it hasn't changed much to start the season as they rank seventh nationally. Once the second-chance points are cut off, the story becomes Eric Dixon and a somewhat erratic Wooga Poplar trying to create in the halfcourt, but that will not be enough.
I expect Virginia to win here, but I see a more significant edge on the spread.
Virginia vs Villanova same-game parlay
Virginia +4.5
Eric Dixon Under 7.5 rebounds
I've paired Dixon to go Under 7.5 rebounds with my best bet.
The game will be one of the slower paces that Villanova has played all season, which means fewer shots, and it's the best rebounding team the Wildcats have faced by a mile. I'll gladly take this, as I'm projecting around six boards for the senior.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Virginia vs Villanova odds
Virginia vs Villanova live odds
Virginia vs Villanova opening odds
- Spread: Virginia +3.5 | Villanova -3.5
- Moneyline: Virginia +145 | Villanova -170
- Over/Under: Over 129.5 | Under 129.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Virginia vs Villanova betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the team total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Villanova.
How to watch Virginia vs Villanova
| Location: | CFG Bank Arena, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 11-15-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Virginia vs Villanova key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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