Fans of late-night hoops are in for a treat, as Nebraska and Murray State tip off late Sunday night in the opening round of the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu.
The Huskers are 7-2 and coming off a big win over Indiana, just their second Quad-2 win of the season. The only Power Four school in the tournament will take on a Racer team that has lost two straight contests and has yet to pick up anything higher than a Quad-3 victory.
Find out why we’re expecting that trend to continue in our Nebraska vs Murray State picks and predictions for Sunday, December 22.
Nebraska vs Murray State prediction
My best bet
Nebraska -9 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Murray State Racers only play eight in their rotation, and the tallest players on the team each stand 6-foot-7 in height. And while they can get away with that lack of height against some teams, the Nebraska Cornhuskers aren’t one of them.
Big man Braxton Meah stands 7-foot-1 in the middle and is utilized frequently in the pick and roll. Andrew Morgan is 6-foot-10 and ranks second on the team in usage rate. He also has a ridiculously high free throw rate, having gotten to the line already 39 times despite averaging just 17 minutes per game.
And we haven’t even gotten to the main man for the Huskers. Brice Williams is a matchup nightmare for any defense, as Indiana found out last time out. He was key to a 21-4 run to finish the game, scoring 11 of his 30 points to push his scoring average to 18.9 points on the season.
Murray State hasn’t played many significantly bigger teams, but those who are have feasted on its interior defense. Pittsburgh big man Cameron Corhen scored 13 points and grabbed 10 boards, and Utah Valley knocked off the Racers behind 19 points and nine boards from 6-foot-10 Carter Welling.
The Racers also struggle to defend off the dribble, which will open up the floor for Williams. Nebraska isn’t a great 3-point shooting team this season, so attacking the rim and getting to the foul line is a big key to its offense. The Huskers rank 22nd in FT rate, and the size disparity will help them get to the line even more frequently.
On the flip side, Murray State shoots the ball well from downtown, but turnovers will be a problem for the Racers, as Nebraska ranks 44th in turnover rate defense and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
In their four losses this season, the Racers have posted an offensive rebound rate of 27% or less. More importantly, they’ve given up an offensive rebound rate of at least 31% in three of those four defeats.
The Huskers are simply too big, too athletic, and have, by far, the best player on the floor. I’m backing them to win by double digits by forcing turnovers and denying second-chance points on defense while getting easy baskets inside and dominating the glass at the other end.
Nebraska vs Murray State same-game parlay
Nebraska -9.5
Brice Williams Over 17.5 points
Brice Williams Over 2.5 assists
Williams has been outstanding this season, and he’s scored 17+ points in four of his last six games. Given the mismatch he’ll have against whoever is guarding him, I’m expecting another high-usage game as he likely posts another 20-point performance.
The win over Indiana saw his assist rate hit 32%, the third time in four games that he’s posted a mark of at least 24% in that metric. There will be times when Murray State tries to force the ball out of his hand, and three assists here is a very low floor that he should easily clear.
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Nebraska vs Murray State odds
Nebraska vs Murray State live odds
Nebraska vs Murray State opening odds
- Spread: Nebraska -8 | Murray State +8
- Moneyline: Nebraska -400 | Murray State +320
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 | Under 144.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Nebraska vs Murray State betting trend to know
Nebraska has hit the team total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.81 units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Nebraska vs. Murray State.
How to watch Nebraska vs Murray State
| Location: | Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Nebraska vs Murray State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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