The Houston Cougars will be playing a game of “capture the Flagg” in tonight's Final Four showdown with the Duke Blue Devils.
This national semifinal pairing pits UH’s top-ranked defense against Duke’s No. 1 rated offense, with super frosh Cooper Flagg leading the charge for the Blue Devils’ attack.
There’s no doubting the talent of the future No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick, but topping this scoring total against the Cougars is a tall order even for a player of his talent, as I explain in my Houston vs Duke predictions and March Madness picks for Saturday, April 5.
Who will win Houston vs Duke?
For the sake of my bracket and a pending futures ticket, I believe the Blue Devils can advance past Houston to make the National Championship game. However, game models are very tight, and this one could be a lot closer than the current points spread predicts. Duke by a hair.
Houston vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson was asked earlier this week how he plans on stopping Duke Blue Devils super frosh Cooper Flagg in Saturday’s national semifinal.
Sampson’s initial answer was, “You don’t.”
Stopping one of the best pro prospects to come out of the college ranks in years is tough ask, even for a defense as good as Houston’s. Slowing Flagg down, however, is very much within UH’s power.
Flagg will undoubtedly be the focus of the Cougars’ defense, and more specifically the assignment of Houston’s go-to stopper Joseph Tugler. The 6-foot-8 sophomore is a handful, not giving up an inch with his 230-pound frame and defending longer players like the 6-foot-9 flag with his “Mr. Fantastic-like” 7-foot-6 wingspan.
As Sampson noted in the interview on “The Herd,” the Cougars have routinely taken on some of the best players in the country over the past two years in the Big 12 and held their own against those blue-chippers.
Houston will be the toughest defense Duke has come across this season, and initial odds for the Final Four pairing have the Blue Devils’ team total at 70.5 points Over/Under — a significant decline from the near 92 points that Duke has averaged in the tournament so far.
Not only does Houston play a swarming defense that doesn’t allow easy looks at the hoop, but UH also plays with a methodical pace on offense that eats up clock and limits opponents’ possessions. That’s a drastic change in tempo compared to the Blue Devils’ recent tournament foes Alabama and Arizona.
Even before adjusting for the Cougars’ lockdown D, Flagg has scored 20 or more points just three times in his past 14 outings — excluding the ACC tournament game with Georgia Tech in which he played only 15 minutes before injuring his ankle.
He had a 30-point outburst in the Sweet 16 versus Arizona but has notched 14, 18, and 16 points in the other three NCAA games, the latter of which came against a suspect Alabama defense that sold out on stopping Flagg in the Elite Eight.
Flagg scores the bulk of his points around the key and relies on buckets in the paint and second-chance putbacks from offensive rebounds for a good chunk of that output. He can also hit from deep, shooting 43% from 3-point range in the tournament.
The Cougars defense, however, ranks third in fewest PITP allowed and 14th in SCP allowed, giving up just over seven offensive rebounds an outing. Houston protects the perimeter and also snuffs out fastbreaks, another aspect in which Flagg has flourished.
Flagg’s point total for Saturday sits at 19.5 Over/Under with the Under padded at -125, which doesn’t make sense when you line that up with the team total for this run-in with Houston and compare those two options over his recent games.
Flagg had a 24.5-point total with a team total of 91.5 O/U versus Alabama, a 21.5-point total and team total of 82.5 vs. Arizona, a 19.5-point prop and TT of 79.5 against Baylor, a 16.5-point prop/TT 86.5 vs. Mount Saint Mary’s, a 20.5-point prop/TT 84.5 vs. Georgia Tech, and a 21.5-point prop/TT 85.5 against North Carolina.
Most game projections have the Blue Devils finishing below that team total of 70.5, with an consensus of 67.5 points from Duke. Player forecasts for Flagg range from 15.5 to 17 points with my number at 15.9 points against UH on Saturday.
Shopping the player props for Flagg, you can find his point prop as low as 17.5 O/U at some operators, which makes the Under 19.5 look like a steal, even at -125 juice.
Houston vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Cooper Flagg Under 20.5 points
Houston +5.5
L.J. Cryer 15+ points
Flagg has only topped 20 points in three of his last 15 games going back to ACC play and now faces a UH defense that will take away his strengths.
The Cougars may not win this one, but game models call for a very close contest. Some forecasts give Houston the win while others call for no higher than a 3-point win by Duke.
Cryer is projected for 15-plus points in this Final Four showdown with Duke. He’s scored 15+ in 14 of his last 19 games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Houston vs Duke odds
Houston vs Duke live odds
Houston vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Houston +5 | Duke -5
- Moneyline: Houston +193 | Duke -230
- Over/Under: Over 137 | Under 137
Odds courtesy of bet365
Houston vs Duke betting trend to know
Houston has been an underdog just 22 times since the 2017-18 season and is 16-6 ATS when catching points from the college basketball oddsmakers (73%). Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Duke.
How to watch Houston vs Duke
| Location | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 4-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:49 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Houston vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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