The Florida Gators face off against the Auburn Tigers in the Final Four on Saturday night.
This should be a thriller between a pair of SEC rivals and my Florida vs. Auburn predictions are betting on the Gators to cover the short spread.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for April 5, with tipoff at 6:09 p.m. ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Who will win Florida vs Auburn?
The Florida Gators are second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and 10th in adjusted defense. Meanwhile, the Auburn Tigers are third in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.
Both teams have looked vulnerable at times this tourney. The Tigers got off to poor starts against Michigan, Creighton, and even No. 16 seed Alabama State. Florida had to overcome a turnover-filled first half against UConn and needed a barrage of threes down the stretch against Texas Tech to pull off the comeback.
That said, the Gators beat Auburn 90-81 on the road without Alijah Martin (14.5 points and 1.5 steals per game) two months ago. Now they play at a neutral site with Martin, and the Tigers have taken a step back on offense (49.6 eFG% in the postseason). That's enough for me to back Florida.
Florida vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Florida -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Looking back at that previous Florida win, there are no outliers that skewed the results. Neither team caught fire from deep or went ice-cold from the field and free throws on both sides were fairly equal.
Even in a highly variable sport like basketball, there's nothing to indicate from the first game that Florida's convincing win was a fluke. Auburn jumped out to a 15-5 lead and it was all Florida from there, with the Gators maintaining a double-digit lead for almost the entire second half.
Since that previous clash on February 8, the Tigers have looked vulnerable while Florida has been red-hot. The Tigers ended their regular season with back-to-back defeats before losing to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament.
Meanwhile, the Gators were dominant down the stretch, picking up comfortable victories against Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Tennessee. They've gone 16-1 straight up and 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 games.
Auburn's offense looks stagnant and has struggled on the perimeter over the last month. Chad Baker-Mazara has been held below 10 points in six of his last seven games while Miles Kelly is averaging just 6.0 ppg and shooting 5-27 from the field over the last three contests.
The Tigers will need Johni Broome to carry their offense if they want to get the win. But the All-American forward is banged up (with an elbow injury the biggest concern) and might not be 100%.
Florida vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida -2.5
Johni Broome Over 10.5 rebounds
Chad Baker-Mazara Under 10.5 points
While that banged-up elbow might bother Broome with the ball, it won't impact his effort on the glass. Broome has eclipsed 10.5 boards in all four games during the NCAA Tournament and this matchup should have a fast tempo resulting in more rebounding opportunities.
Broome also had 11 rebounds in 30 minutes against Florida in that previous meeting and I'd expect even more minutes in a Final Four showdown.
Baker-Mazara has been held to fewer than 10 points in six of his last seven games. He scored just six points in each of the last two rounds and also had six points when these teams clashed in February.
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Florida vs Auburn odds
Florida vs Auburn live odds
Florida vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Florida -2.5 (-115) | Auburn +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Florida -150 | Auburn +125
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Tigers have gone below their team total in seven of their last eight games, while the Gators have hit their team total Over in 10 of their previous 11 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Auburn.
How to watch Florida vs Auburn
| Location | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Saturday, 4-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Florida vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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