The Villanova Wildcats take on the USC Trojans in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown tonight.
We've seen some high-scoring performances in this relatively meaningless end-of-season tournament, which is why my Villanova vs. USC predictions are betting on the Over.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this April 3 clash, with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Who will win Villanova vs USC?
Villanova is rated slightly above USC by every ranking system. The shortest gap is at KenPom, which has Villanova at No. 53 and USC at No. 58, while Bart Torvik and Haslametrics have the Wildcats 10 and 12 spots ahead, respectively.
But the big reason why the Wildcats should get the win here is that their senior-laden starting lineup is all suiting up for this tourney — including Eric Dixon, who leads the country with 23.0 points per game.
The Trojans were missing a pair of starters in Wesley Yates III (14.1 ppg, 43.9 3PT%) and Chibuzo Agbo (11.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg) on Tuesday. Yates was in a walking boot, while Agbo was out for undisclosed reasons. The absence of their second and third-leading scorers will make it tough to keep up with Villanova's firepower.
Villanova vs USC prediction
My best bet: Over 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Villanova Wildcats hammered a slow-paced, defensively solid Colorado squad by a final score of 85-64 in the opening round on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the USC Trojans are coming off an 89-60 win against Tulane. They shot a sizzling 64% from the field to prove that they can get buckets even without Yates and Agbo.
These teams shot lights out in the opening round, but both were also fortunate to face foes who couldn't hit an open shot. The Green Wave went just 8-for-22 on shots at the rim, while the Buffs are 306th in the country in effective field goal percentage (48.2%) since the start of January.
The vulnerable defenses on both sides will be taken advantage of in this matchup. The Wildcats are 23rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking fourth in 3-point percentage (39.6%). They'll put up points against a USC squad that is 95th in adjusted defense and sits outside the Top 250 in Open 3 rate per ShotQualityBets.
That said, the Wildcats are just 108th in adjusted defense themselves, entering this one 225th in opponent 3-point percentage (34.5%). That's bad news against a USC attack that is 39th in adjusted offense and 30th in 3-point percentage (37.1%).
My biggest concern about betting the Over is that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country. That said, we've seen teams play fast and loose in this meaningless end-of-season tourney, so expect an uptick in their pace tonight.
Villanova vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 150.5
Villanova moneyline
Both teams to score 30 points in the first half
We saw some slow starts to the first-round games, with teams coming off lengthy layoffs. However, offenses played much better as those games went on, and the rust should be shaken off by now.
That will lead to a strong start from both offenses in what I expect to be a high-scoring matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Villanova vs USC odds
Villanova vs USC live odds
Villanova vs USC opening odds
- Spread: Villanova -5 | USC +5
- Moneyline: Villanova -230 | USC +200
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Villanova vs USC betting trend to know
The Over is 19-6 in the Trojans' last 25 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. USC.
How to watch Villanova vs USC
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Thursday, 4-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Villanova vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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