The Memphis Tigers and Auburn Tigers collide in a feline-only final of the Maui Invitational this afternoon at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Lahaina Civic Center has been home to some terrific college basketball moments over the last two days, and fans hope for more as two red-hot teams square off where only one winner can be declared. My Memphis vs. Auburn predictions ultimately like the latter team to win big.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 27.
Memphis vs Auburn prediction
My best bet
Auburn -9 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Let’s not take anything away from these two teams. Both have been a money-printing machine for bettors to start the year as the Memphis Tigers are 6-0 ATS while the Auburn Tigers are right behind at 5-1 ATS.
Memphis advanced past the quarterfinals with a shocking 99-97 overtime win over UConn and followed it up with a sound display in a 71-63 handling of Michigan State in the semifinals a day ago. Bettors didn’t believe in Memphis, pushing the spread from +1 at open to +2.5 at close, but Penny Hardaway’s team rewarded our faith with a sweat-free cover.
The good times may come to a close against Auburn, now the top-ranked team on KenPom. The season has barely started and Bruce Pearl’s team already has three marquee wins over North Carolina, Iowa State, and Houston.
Auburn advanced past Iowa State 83-81 in comeback fashion in the semifinal, showing a level of cohesiveness and determination that has eluded some of Pearl’s talented rosters in years past. It then looked terrific in an 85-72 victory over UNC last night.
There’s everything to like about this team, which ranks Top 5 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (second) and adjusted defensive efficiency (fifth). Johni Broome may be the nation’s most dominant player, averaging 20.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game.
Broome should cook against a Memphis interior defense that UConn exploited in the event opener. Center Tarris Reed and forward Jaylin Stewart combined for 38 points off the bench in that game, taking advantage of Dain Dainja’s lack of height and Moussa Cisse’s lack of strength.
Auburn has five players other than Broome averaging double figures: Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly, Denver Jones, Chaney Johnson, and Tahaad Pettiford. This team can beat you in any way it pleases, and Broome should dominate the interior while the role players do their thing.
Some will point to this scheduling spot as an overtly difficult one for Auburn, which had to play the night game on Tuesday and follow it up with a quick turnaround for the afternoon finale. Fair enough, but don’t forget that Auburn has perhaps the best depth of any team in the country and is perfectly equipped to handle a tournament, in which rest is an afterthought.
Memphis has tremendous guard play and has reached the final thanks to hot shooting from PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter, and Colby Rogers. Will that continue in its third game in as many days against an elite defense that puts a ton of pressure on opposing ball-handlers? I’ll bet not.
Memphis vs Auburn same-game parlay
Auburn -9.5
Under 156.5
Both teams will be playing with tired legs for the finale, which could affect the total in a few ways. Given Memphis’ ball-dominant guard play, I’ll bet on them slowing down against a ferocious Auburn defense that harasses you relentlessly and refuses to give you an inch for free.
Memphis has lived by the three, converting 45.4% of its looks from downtown. That’s the third-best hit rate in the country and seems unsustainable, especially against an Auburn defense that ranks 12th in 3-point attempt rate and 37th in 3-point defense vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics.
Hardaway did a good job assembling this year’s roster. Memphis is better than it has been compared to some previously disappointing rosters of yesteryear, but is it ready to light up the scoreboard against the freight train that is Auburn?
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Memphis vs Auburn odds
Memphis vs Auburn live odds
Memphis vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +9 (-110) | Auburn -9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +350 | Auburn -450
- Over/Under: Over 157 (-110) | Under 157 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Memphis vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has covered the spread in 23 of its last 36 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Auburn.
How to watch Memphis vs Auburn
| Location: | Lahania Civic Center, Lahania, HI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Memphis vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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