The Memphis Tigers (13-8, 7-4) have an opportunity Saturday to close the gap with the American Conference-leading Houston Cougars (20-3, 9-1), but it will obviously be no easy task.
The current No. 3 team in the country was already stunned on Wednesday with a loss to SMU, and is undoubtedly on high alert. A winner of four straight, Memphis is one of the latest teams to occupy the "Last Four Out" in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, and a win against Houston would undoubtedly move them inside the bubble.
Continue reading for more analysis and free college basketball picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Houston on Saturday, February 12th.
Memphis vs Houston odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread opened with Houston as 10-point favorites and has bounced a bit both directions, but currently sits at -10. The total opened at 141.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Memphis vs Houston predictions
Predictions made on 2/11/2022 at 7:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs Houston game info
• Location: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Memphis at Houston betting preview
Injuries
Memphis: Emoni Bates F (Questionable).
Houston: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Houston has played to the Over in seven of its last 10 games. Memphis has played in 15 totals of 142 or higher, and has gone 10-5 to the Over in such instances. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. Houston.
Memphis vs Houston picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
At this point, Memphis has undoubtedly been a disappointment this season. The Tigers entered the season as the No. 12 team in the preseason AP poll and with the top-ranked recruiting class in the nation. Leading that class was Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren, two five-star recruits that ranked fifth and sixth nationally. Duren has flashed for fourth-year head coach Penny Hardaway, averaging 11.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 63.4% from the field, with all three being top marks for the team
Bates was averaging 10.4 points before he sustained a back injury, one that has sidelined him since January 27th. The ensuing saga has been a headache for Hardaway and Tigers fans alike. Reports began to surface that Bates' future with the team had "suddenly come into question". Due to just turning 18 in late January, Bates is ineligible to enter the NBA draft this upcoming season, and the opportunity to begin making money - whether it was overseas or in the NBA G League - was a path Bates could entertain. A week passed without any developments until Bates returned to campus earlier this week. When asked about his status for Saturday's game, Hardaway had this to say:
Penny says Emoni Bates is a "game-time decision kinda" for Houston on Saturday.
— Jason Munz (@munzly) February 10, 2022
An admittedly weird situation altogether, but the Tigers will have to put any and all distractions behind them if they want to best Houston on Saturday. The Cougars are likely on high alert after losing on Wednesday to SMU, a team they are more than capable of beating. Houston managed to lose that game despite shooting 54% from the field and 42% from three, but it was its defense that surprisingly failed. SMU managed to shoot 52% from three and got to the free-throw line a whopping 27 times en route to 85 points. That game marked the first time Houston had surrendered 70+ points in over two months.
And that's what Houston largely represents: consistency. In the 18 games since Thanksgiving, Houston has scored 70+ in all but three games. The Cougars are 16-2 during that time, with their only loss outside of that SMU loss coming on the road against then-No. 9 Alabama in a one-point heartbreaker. Their underlying metrics support their success, ranking fourth in KenPom overall with a 7th-ranked offense and 14th ranked defense to boot. They are led by junior guard and lethal sharpshooter Marcus Sasser (17.7 PPG), who is shooting 43.7% from deep on 8.6 attempts per game.
Five of Houston's top six players in the rotation outside of Sasser are seniors. Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards (14.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) headlines that group and joins Sasser in the backcourt, shooting 36.7% from the perimeter on 7.7 attempts per game as well. And that gap between Houston's abundance of experience and consistency when compared to Memphis' reliance on fresh faces who have been sprung into unexpected levels of responsibility due to a slew of injuries over the season, it's no wonder why the two teams have seemingly performed the way they have relative to their expectations.
And in such a high leverage game on Saturday that has bearings on who could ultimately walk away as the regular-season champion of the American conference, there's really only one way to lean in this matchup. Especially when the side full of veteran leadership is coming off of a surprise loss.
Prediction: Houston -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Memphis regularly sees high totals, and it’s gone 10-5 to the Over on totals set at 142 or above. Comparatively, Houston has seen such totals just twice this year but has gone Over both times. More broadly, Houston has played to the Over seven times in its last ten games.
Memphis' lofty totals are likely a product of its excellent offensive production. Its 76.3 points per game in conference play is best in the American, and it also owns top marks in field goal percentage, assists, total rebounding, and offensive rebounding. Houston, coincidentally enough, ranks second in every single one of those categories.
The table is set for there to be points.
Prediction: Over 141 (-110)
Best bet
As the preseason polls and recruiting rankings suggested prior to this season, Memphis is full of talent and potential. Most of that potential has largely been unrealized, but it is unmistakably there. Some of it is beginning to flash, with the Tigers winning four straight and the last three wins by an average margin of 15.3 points per game.
But playing the likes of Tulsa, East Carolina, Central Florida, and Tulane (the four teams they beat most recently) is a much different task than beating the Houston Tigers. On top of having the aforementioned experience edge on the court, they have it on the sidelines as well.
Kelvin Sampson has led his team to a regular-season or conference tournament championship in each of the last three years. He led last year's team to the Final Four, taking the Cougars a distance many did not expect. Hardaway, on the other hand, has failed to make the tournament yet, and he may, unfortunately, be staring down the barrel of missing it again. There will be better days ahead of Hardaway and his Memphis Tigers, but Saturday is not one of them.
Pick: Houston -10 (-110)
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