Memphis vs Houston Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Clamp Tigers Sans Davis

A college basketball betting battle atop the AAC is set for a Sunday matinee when the No. 2 Houston Cougars host the Memphis Tigers. 

Houston leads the conference and rides a six-game winning streak into this matchup with Memphis, laying as much as 14 points against a Tigers team with injury issues.

Memphis may have Alex Lomax and Malcolm Dandridge back in action today but leading scorer Kendric Davis is a game-time decision due to a sprained ankle suffered Thursday.

I run down the college basketball odds and give my best NCAAB betting picks for Memphis at Houston on February 19.

Memphis vs Houston best odds

Memphis vs Houston picks and predictions

If line movement is any indication (spread ticking up toward Houston), the Memphis Tigers may have seniors Lomax and Dandridge back on the floor for this key AAC encounter, but Davis could very well be a no-go.

The Tigers do need a big win to boost their tournament resume, but with a finale set against UH at home next month, coach Penny Hardaway may not rush back his star scorer and risk blowing up his team’s stretch run and postseason chances.

Without Davis in the second half of Thursday’s home date with Central Florida, the Tigers mustered only 20 points in the final 20 minutes and nearly blew a 15-point lead if not for a last-second layup that secured the win.

Hardaway, who was preaching improved defense from his players heading into that game with the Knights, had to be happy with what he saw on that end of the floor. The Tigers did hold Central Florida to 63 points on 32% shooting from the field and generated 15 turnovers from UCF.

Getting Dandridge back on the floor boosts this defense with a versatile defender who can alter shots and Lomax is a quick-handed guard (2.8 steals per game) who would provide some stability and leadership. Hardaway wasn’t sure how many minutes these returnees would log in their first game back from lengthy hiatuses.

The Houston Cougars' defensive prowess is never in doubt and slowing down this Memphis pace will be even easier if Davis is indeed sidelined. The Cougars’ clock-eating offense and efficient scoring is the perfect counter to the Tigers, who like to force mistakes and transition off turnovers for easy buckets.

Houston, however, just doesn’t give up the ball and cashes in on better than 47% of its field goal attempts. That steady control and offensive efficiency will leave Memphis starting its offensive sets off the inbounds, before running into a stingy Cougars half-court defense. 

We’ve seen UH put the breaks on up-tempo teams already this season, most notably in a December non-conference clash with the powerful Alabama Crimson Tide offense. Houston lost but proved its defensive mettle against an elite Alabama fastbreak. The Cougars also stuck quicker AAC attacks like Tulane (No. 5 in tempo) and SMU (No. 63) in mud this season.

This current total, which is sitting as high as 143 points, would be just the seventh Over/Under number of 137 or more faced by Sampson’s squad this year. Houston is a perfect 6-0 to the Under against those taller totals this season and has gone 8-18 O/U (69% Unders) against totals of 137 or higher in the past three campaigns.

My best bet: Under 142.5 (-110 at Betway)

Memphis vs Houston spread analysis

This point spread opened as big as Houston -14 but we saw early movement drop this spread to -12.5 before buyback on the Cougars took it back to -13.5.

We’re seeing this creep to Houston -14 this morning, indicating a potential negative market reaction to the Tigers’ injury troubles. And those movements are often reflective of the impending injury update hours before an official word.

According to local Memphis reporters, Alex Lomax and Malcolm Dandridge could be back in the Tigers’ lineup after missing substantial time to injuries. That could soften the potential absence of Davis, who is being listed as a game-time decision. He left Thursday’s 64-63 win over Central Florida on crutches after spraining his ankle in the first half.

Missing Davis, who averages 21 points per game, is especially crushing for Memphis against a Cougars team that sits No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense. Houston allows only 55.4 points per game on the year, helped along by a plodding pace on offense which works deep into the shot clock and milks possession, therefore limiting their opponents' touches.

The Tigers are the opposite, with Penny Hardaway’s athletic lineup trying to pump up tempo and get up and down the floor. Memphis sits 13th in adjusted tempo at KenPom, versus Houston at 347th, firing up close to 61 field goal attempts per contest. Houston limits its foes to just 52.1 average attempts.

This is the first meeting between these AAC powers this season, with UH and Memphis set for the season finale on March 5. Looking at last year’s contests between Kelvin Sampson and Hardaway, the Cougars fell as favorites in both regular season matchups but won and covered the -10 against the Tigers in the AAC Tournament.

Houston enters the weekend with a 16-10 ATS count on the year but is 3-3 ATS on this current six-game run. The Cougars are also 8-7 ATS at home while Memphis holds an 11-14-1 ATS record overall with a 4-4-1 ATS count in the role of visitor.

Memphis vs Houston Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total hit the board at 142.5 at some shops and is between 141.5 and as high as 143 at some online books.

The Cougars are the top defensive program in the land, limiting foes to just over 55 points per game and ranked out No. 8 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Houston has had only one total close at 140 points or more in the past seven games (140 O/U vs. Tulsa on Feb. 8) – it’s lone Under over this six-game winning streak (5-1 O/U).

As mentioned, Houston runs a very methodical offense that ranks among the slowest in adjusted tempo across the land. The Cougars not only go deep into the shot clock on their possessions but Sampson’s drum-tight defense also limits the looks of opponents and has them working the ball around for opportunities.

The last time Houston took on a tempo team as fast as Memphis was back in December when they fell 71-65 to Alabama, which sits at No. 2 in pace. The Cougars did a great job slowing down the No. 3 scoring team in the country, checking the Crimson Tide to 54 field goal attempts and less than 41% success from the floor. That non-conference clash finished Under the closing number of 139 points.

Memphis’ offense looked dead in the water in the second half versus UCF on Thursday, putting up 44 points in the opening 20 minutes before scoring just 20 points without Davis on the floor in the second half. Davis’ status will have a significant impact on this offense as well as where the betting total goes.

As for defense, Memphis has some longer rim protectors and quick hands, leading to blocks and steals. However, Houston plays with patience and coughs up the ball less than 10 times per outing, not allowing MU to thrive in transition.

The Tigers want to get to the rim for high-percentage looks but if UH forces them to the outside, the Tigers are not a good enough shooting team to find points outside of the paint.

Houston owns a 13-13 O/U mark, including 6-9 O/U at home. Memphis is 16-10 O/U with a 6-3 O/U count on the road.

Memphis vs Houston betting trend to know

The Under is 17-7-1 (71%) in Cougars’ last 25 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Houston.

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