Houston (28-5, 15-3) has been the best team inside the AAC walls all season long but they have a kryptonite — the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis (21-9, 13-5) took down the AAC-best Cougars in both regular-season matchups (69-59 at home, 75-61 on the road) and will clash with them once more to close the season — but this time with an AAC title hanging in the balance.
Can Houston get over the Memphis hump or will the Tigers be crowned champions as underdogs? Read our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Memphis vs. Houston to find out.
Memphis vs Houston odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston hit the board as 4.5-point favorites but has been bet down to -3.5 in some places at the time of writing. The total has mostly stood pat at 133.5, where it opened, but there are some other numbers available if you look around.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Memphis vs Houston predictions
Predictions made on 3/13/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs Houston game info
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Sunday, March 13, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Memphis vs Houston betting preview
Injuries
Memphis: Jalen Duren C (Questionable).
Houston: Fabian White F (Questionable), Marcus Sasser G (Out), Tramon Mark G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Memphis is 10-2 against the spread in its last 12 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. Houston.
Memphis vs Houston picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Penny Hardaway's squad has finally gotten healthy and are playing the best basketball of their season.
Memphis is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS over its last 12 games and has made its way to the AAC Championship game with wins over UCF (85-69) and SMU (70-63).
And while the Tigers may be 3.5-point underdogs in this matchup, they'll have the confidence of a favorite after handing them a 10-point loss in mid-February and a 14-point loss in Houston's building just a week ago.
The keys to victory for Memphis in those two regular-season matchups were 39 forced turnovers, a plus-11 margin on the glass, and strong shooting from beyond the arc (16-37, 43.2%) as well as from the foul line (34-39, 87%).
While Houston's defense ranks higher per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rating (12th), Memphis' defense — which ranks 30th — has been putting the clamps on nearly everyone it's faced during the home stretch of the AAC schedule.
The Tigers have held eight of their last 13 opponents to sub-40% shooting nights and forced the Cougars into the two lowest offensive outputs of their season — 59 and 61 points.
What makes Houston such a great team — and what they've done so well against the rest of the ACC — is their ability to force turnovers in bunches, dominate the boards, and get high-percentage looks deep in the paint, but that just hasn't come to fruition against the Tigers.
Offensively, Memphis moves the ball as well as anyone in the country, averaging 16.1 assists per game (16th in the nation), and has consistently gotten (and knocked down) open looks from the perimeter in the two Houston matchups. That should be no different this afternoon.
They say it's hard to beat a good team three times, but this — by all accounts — is a bad matchup for the Cougars and we're getting free points to go along with it.
Win or lose, I expect this to be a tightly-contested heavyweight bout. Take the Tigers and the extra buckets.
Prediction: Memphis +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The lines for this matchup keep going lower and lower. The first contest stayed well Under 141 while the second stayed just a shade Under 137.
Today, we're seeing a 133.5-point total and I still think leaning on the Under is the right play.
Houston is allowing just 59.1 points per game (fourth in the country) while Memphis has only allowed 65.2 over its hot 13-game stretch, down from its season-long average of 68.3. Houston is also 7-3 to the Under across its last 10 games.
Both teams will want to slow this game down as they look to avoid mistakes and both defenses are strong enough to create some serious scoring droughts.
Back this contest to stay just Under the total once again.
Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)
Best bet
I'm rolling with the Tigers as the best bet in this game.
The've had Houston's number this season and have only gotten better on both ends since those matchups. On top of that, the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these squads.
Take the points once again today as the Tigers scratch and claw for its first AAC title.
Pick: Memphis +3.5 (-110)
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