Sunday’s American Athletic Association matchup between the Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs is an important contest between two 18-win teams that could very well miss the NCAA Tournament.
Memphis heads to Dallas three days removed from a 10-point road loss to North Texas, sinking them further down the AAC table and in danger of missing the Big Dance.
SMU has won five straight, but it needs to continue its hot play to avenge an early January buzzer-beating away loss to the Tigers and improve their March Madness chances.
Who will win this important American Athletic Conference matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Memphis vs. SMU on Sunday, February 18.
Memphis vs SMU best odds
Memphis vs SMU picks and predictions
The SMU Mustangs need to win to hold down the fourth spot in the AAC standings and avenge their early January buzzer-beating away loss to the Memphis Tigers.
The Tigers held Harris to 2-14 shooting from inside the arc and 0-5 from downtown. He finished with five points on the night and I expect a bounceback performance today.
He's been great on both sides of the floor for SMU this season, and his 5-point stinker at Memphis came during a two-game slump where the Mustangs sniper scored only nine points over two games.
He's since bounced back with 15+ points in four of the following 10 games. I expect him to get to that mark again tonight.
Memphis played pretty good defense that night, and it was the first tilt it was without top defender Caleb Mills. The Tigers bore down hard on the perimeter, but since that buzzer-beating win, they've dropped five of their previous 10, primarily due to an underwhelming defense, one Harris will take full advantage of today.
Minutes in basketball prop betting usually mean money, and Harris averages more minutes per game (30.4) than any other Mustang. I expect the senior transfer guard from Butler to come out firing against a defense allowing 49% from the field and 34% from downtown and clear his 14.5-point prop number.
Harris is coming off a 25-point game at Tulane where he was 5-6 from downtown and has shot 50% or better from the field in each of his last two contests. He’s enjoyed double-digit scoring nights in each of his previous six and faces an incredibly leaky Memphis defense, allowing 77.5 points per away matchup.
Finally, while Memphis needs a win, so does SMU. Harris laid a stinker against the Tigers in January, but the Memphis defense that held him to 2-14 shooting from the field doesn’t exist outside of FedExForum.
The senior guard is starting to heat up, has scored 15+ or more in two of his last five, and will get all the minutes he needs this afternoon to clear the number.
My best bet: Chuck Harris Over 14.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Memphis vs SMU same-game parlay
Chuck Harris Over 14.5 points
Chuck Harris Over 1.5 made threes
Zurich Phelps Over 1.5 made threes
Our three-leg SGP is a beauty that correlates well and is based on Harris and Zurich Phelps going off tonight.
Harris has gone Over this number in two of his last three while attempting 5+ triples in each of his last five games. SMU teammate Zurich Phelps has recently struggled from downtown but cleared this number against Tulane.
The Mustangs' leading scorers meet a Tigers perimeter defense allowing 35% from downtown on the road, resulting in 28.8 points per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs SMU spread and Over/Under analysis
Sunday is an important game for both programs. Teams finishing in the top four in the conference receive a “double-bye” at next month’s AAC tourney.
Memphis opened as high as +5.5 (-110), but that number is no longer available. The Tigers are +5 (-110) across most betting shops, but it’s difficult to trust a team that's just 1-7 ATS over their last eight and 2-8 ATS in their previous 10 games.
SMU bettors can enjoy -4.5 at BetRivers and BetMGM, but SMU rarely covers the number. The Mustangs are 2-5 ATS over their last eight and 4-5-1 ATS over their last 10. No thanks.
bet365 opened this matchup with a 156 total but that number is gone. Over bettors can find Over 154.5 (-115) at FanDuel — Memphis is 6-4 O/U in its previous 10 and 3-0 to the Over in its past three tilts.
The Mustangs are 8-2 in their last 10 to the Over, and while the 154.5 points are enticing, their recent history suggests the Under might be the play. The two combatants are 3-7 to the Under in their previous 10.
Memphis vs SMU betting trend to know
Less than 155.5 points have been scored in 17 of SMU's last 18 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. SMU.
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Memphis vs SMU game info
| Location: | Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, February 18, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Memphis vs SMU key injuries
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