Memphis vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Can't Tangle With Aggies

An intriguing matchup greets us when No. 21 Texas A&M welcomes Memphis to town on Sunday afternoon.

This is a resume-building opportunity for each team as they head toward the end of their respective non-conference slates. For each, a win would represent a “Quad 1” victory, which can go a long way when seeding a team in March. The Aggies enter Sunday as winners of two of their last three. Virginia handled them with relative ease about a week ago, but then A&M bounced back with a blowout win over hapless DePaul.

Memphis has beaten three of its five Power 5 opponents and recently snapped a two-game losing streak with an overtime win over VCU, but they're considerable underdogs in the college basketball odds.

What’s the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Sunday, December 10. 

Memphis vs Texas A&M best odds

Memphis vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

When looking at the factors that make up an offense, there are other things you look at besides how well a team can shoot. Texas A&M checks many of those boxes.

One of the first things you look at is if a team can hold onto the ball.

Somehow, one of the biggest keys to being an efficient offense that seemingly goes undervalued is how often you can get up a shot at the end of each possession. Loosely translated, that’s how often you don't turn over the ball. Texas A&M has been exceptional in that regard, as they enter tonight with the 35th-lowest turnover rate in the country.

The second part is how often a team can generate second-chance points.

A poor shooting night is inevitable for any offense. The accurate measure of an efficient offense can be how foolproof they are against this being detrimental to the outcome. The Aggies are foolproof.

They have been tremendous on the backboard this season and will enter this matchup with the second-best offensive rebounding rate in the country at 45%. That means they are rebounding nearly half of their misses — a truly astonishing feat. 

With such an efficient offense taking the floor tonight, I’m grabbing the Aggies team total of Over 78.5 points as my best bet. They’ve cleared this number in three of their last five games.

The rebounding stat I mentioned above is critical to the handicap of this matchup.

Henry Coleman and Andersson Garcia have been dominant on the rebounding front and are the catalysts for this A&M team. This is a bigger deal than it may otherwise be against Memphis, because the Tigers rank a horrid 313th in defensive rebounding rate. You won’t find a more considerable statistical advantage on the slate today than a team ranking in the Top 5 offensive rebounding rate while its opponent rates nearly at the bottom of the sport in defensive rebounding rate.

Outside of creating many second-chance scoring opportunities, the Aggies will have advantages in the halfcourt set. Memphis is an excellent defensive team, but it’s not without flaws. Unfortunately for the Tigers, those flaws are ones that A&M is built to exploit.

The biggest issue for Memphis is its pick-and-roll defense. It’s allowing exactly one point per possession on these sets. That is one of the worst rates in the country, and it’s a big issue when facing the Aggies. They’ll bring an offense in the Top 30% of college basketball in pick-and-roll scoring, with Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford leading the way, both grading out as good scorers in these sets.

This is simply lousy luck for Memphis. They are a solid team but are bad at defending pick-and-roll sets and defensive rebounding, and those are the two things that Texas A&M is best at. It’s hard to imagine the Aggies struggling much on the offensive end of the ball. Even if they're missing shots, they will get a good amount of second-chance scores with such an advantage on the backboard.

I’ll take them to score in bunches en route to clearing their team total.

My best bet: Texas A&M team total Over 78.5 (-110 at bet365)

Memphis vs Texas A&M same-game parlay

Texas A&M team total Over 78.5

Texas A&M win race to 20 points

+135 at bet365

With limited options in the market, we’re left with a simple two-leg same-game parlay here. We’re taking our best bet with a correlated play for a modest payoff.

That play is that Texas A&M to get to 20 points first. I expect the Aggies to control this matchup entirely with the two massive advantages they have at their disposal.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Memphis vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis

I lean toward Texas A&M in this spot, and it’s for all the reasons I’ve listed above.

Overcoming such a massive disadvantage on the backboard will be nearly impossible for Memphis. Of course, that’s before you get to its issues defending screening actions and stopping the Aggies guards from getting downhill.

These two teams have played one another twice over the past decade, and Memphis has won both times. However, each game was closely contested, as the Tigers won them by four combined points.

The overall game total is something I’m going to stay away from here. The Aggies team total is the best bet, and that’s all the exposure I want here. As far as the full-game total goes, it’s closely aligned with my projection.

Each team will enter with a 6-4 mark to the Over in their last 10 games. As of recently, Texas A&M has been a solid Over. Of its previous four games, three have exceeded the total. Nobody scores against Virginia, so you’d expect that one to go Under like it did, but the other three games went Over by a comfortable margin. 

Memphis vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

Texas A&M has hit the moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Texas A&M.

Memphis vs Texas A&M game info

Memphis vs Texas A&M key injuries

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