Memphis vs Vanderbilt Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defenses Rule the Day in Nashville

We've finally made it to opening night in college basketball and are in for a treat when the Vanderbilt Commodores meet the Memphis Tigers.

This version of an in-state rivalry is a compelling one. Vanderbilt head coach Jerry Stackhouse and his team showed marketable improvement throughout the season last year, notching its first winning season since 2016 and were highly competitive on a nightly basis.

The problem for them this season and they'll be getting their first taste of life without Scotty Pippen Jr., the Dore' who moved on to the NBA after doing everything for Vandy a season ago. He was single-handedly responsible for a third of Vanderbilt's points, and replacing him will be a momentous feat.

Meanwhile, Memphis is fresh of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014 and starts the year just outside the Top 25. They've spent most of the entirety of the Penny Hardaway tenure being viewed as overrated. Could this be the year the Tigers are underrated? 

Find out in my college basketball picks and predictions for Vanderbilt vs. Memphis below. 

Memphis vs Vanderbilt best odds

Memphis vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions

The Under is easily the best bet on the board. Let's break down why.

Replacing Scotty Pippen Jr. is an incredibly challenging feat for Stackhouse and I'm not ready to say that it will be a finished product by opening night, considering that Pippen had the highest usage rate of any player in the SEC last season at just over 34%.

Even with him in the fold, Vandy barely averaged 70 points per game a season ago. They enter this season without him, along with their other leading scorer. They'll bring in some talent; the most notable of those is two four-stars in Lee Dort and Colin Smith.

Additionally, Stackhouse is praised universally among coaches for his offensive innovation, but that means it takes time to understand his concepts. I'm not sold it gels immediately; when factoring in a 128 projected tempo and points may be hard to come by. Another reason for that? The Memphis defense. 

The Tigers have length once again and should naturally be really good defensively. Two seasons ago, they finished No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom, and last season they finished 33rd. Even with that drop, they were better than the 33rd-best defense in hoops by the end of last season.

If there has been a hallmark for Penny Hardaway teams, it's been the defense. They are again expected to be elite defensively, with a 15th-best efficiency ranking on KenPom and the moniker of "tallest team in the American conference," per BartTorvik. I've already mentioned why Vanderbilt will have some offensive struggles; this should compound them. The Tigers may have some scoring issues, too, though.

They lost leading scorer Jalen Duren to the NBA last season but will reload that talent. However, Kendric Davis — a coveted offseason transfer who you'd expect the offense to be run through — won't be at full strength in this one. At SMU last season, he averaged nearly 20 points per game but arrives with an ankle that has given him some issues during the offseason.

While he's expected to play, we shouldn't assume his regular scoring punch right out of the gate with a new team and not at full strength. That alone is enough to push me over the edge here. Factor in a Vanderbilt defense that allowed just 70 points per game last season, and I feel even better.

I'm projecting a game somewhere in the mid-120s, giving us a sizable edge on this number. These two teams are good to great defensively and will be revamping their offenses. Give me a low-scoring, closely-contested game that hopefully avoids overtime. 

My best bet: Under 139 (-115 at Barstool Sportsbook)

Memphis vs Vanderbilt spread analysis

College basketball odds opened up with Memphis at -3 and we've seen a little buy-back that has brought the spread down to 2.5.

That seems just a shade off. However, I understand buying at Vanderbilt, given this is a team that has shown steady improvement over the last few seasons under Stackhouse. With that, they are a team that could make the NCAA Tournament, but as I've noted above, I don't see them gelling right off the bat.

This one feels like a game with several lead changes early, as both teams look sluggish and struggle to score. After that, Memphis' raw talent takes over, along with its athleticism.

Although I don't want to take this pregame number, I'll get a better number live betting on the game. In the first half, I'll be looking for Memphis moneyline at plus money. If I can get it, I'll jump all over it.

Memphis vs Vanderbilt Over/Under analysis

I'm on the Under here. These are two good defensive teams that will be figuring things out on the offensive end to begin the season.

I spent a limited amount of time on it at the onset, but Memphis won't precisely be a hard team for Vanderbilt to guard. Most of their sets rely on the player making an individual play of athleticism or talent. They only run a little clever stuff, opening us up for a potential middle bet on this game. Middling is finding a good number on both sides to get both. This game starts off pretty ugly, and over time, Memphis finds its groove.

We're on the pregame Under already, but if it moves around eight or 10 points early on, that brings us a tremendous middle opportunity. If that happens, I'll be jumping on the live Over. With that bet, I'm backing that Memphis eventually takes over because of its athleticism.

Something else that supports this line of thinking? Memorial Gym is just a strange place to play. The benches are placed in odd spots, and a host of other things could throw off a shooter's rhythm. Everything is pointing to a slow start. It's opening night... let's have some fun. 

Memphis vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know

The Under is 28-13 in Memphis' last 42 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Vanderbilt.

Memphis vs Vanderbilt game info

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