The No. 21 ranked Memphis Tigers head to Charlottesville to face the Virginia Cavaliers in NCAA basketball action.
The Cavaliers have gotten off to a rough start this season, and my Memphis vs Virginia predictions expect that to continue. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this December 18 clash.
Memphis vs Virginia prediction
My best bet
Memphis -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Memphis Tigers are 8-2 and have beaten three teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Meanwhile, the Virginia Cavaliers are 3-4 in their last seven games, with every defeat coming by double digits and all three of those wins coming against teams outside the Top 300 of the KenPom ratings.
It's been a rough season for a UVA program left in the lurch following Tony Bennett's abrupt retirement in mid-October. Ron Sanchez took over as interim head coach and has inherited a system that doesn't have the adequate players in place.
Virginia still runs the pack-line defense but doesn't defend at anywhere near the level it used to. The Cavaliers are 150th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (32.5%) and defensive rebounding rate while sitting outside the Top 250 in opponent turnover rate.
The key to unlocking the pack line has been to beat defenders up the floor with tempo and shoot well from beyond the arc. The Tigers do both of those things at an elite level, ranking second in the country in 3-point percentage (44.3%) and 33rd in transition frequency, per ShotQualityBets.
On the other end of the floor, the Cavaliers have struggled to get buckets and are just 246th in the country in offensive efficiency. The Tigers are fresh off a game where they beat Clemson 87-82 on the road, and I expect them to win and cover in hostile territory again.
Memphis vs Virginia same-game parlay
Memphis -4
Over 129
Early money came in on the Under, dropping the total from 131 to 129, but I'm not sure it should have. Sure, the Cavaliers play at one of the slowest tempos in the country but their defense has looked beatable.
We saw the Over easily cash when UVA played efficient, up-tempo attacks like Saint John's and Florida, and Memphis also likes to push the pace. The Tigers are 26th in the country in adjusted offense and have hit the Over in five of their last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs Virginia odds
Memphis vs Virginia live odds
Memphis vs Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -4.5 | Virginia +4.5
- Moneyline: Memphis -200 | Virginia +165
- Over/Under: Over 131 | Under 131
Odds courtesy of bet365
Memphis vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. Virginia.
How to watch Memphis vs Virginia
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Memphis vs Virginia key injuries
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Not intended for use in MA.
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