Miami vs Clemson Odds, Picks and Predictions: Matthew Cleveland Finds His Mojo

With nearly four weeks remaining in the ACC regular season, the Miami Hurricanes and Clemson Tigers are two programs chasing postseason dreams but trending in opposite directions.

Miami is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and the college basketball odds list the Hurricanes as huge underdogs as they look to end a two-game losing streak. 

Clemson enters tonight’s tilt riding a two-game winning streak with huge away victories over North Carolina and Syracuse while hoping to avenge a 13-point early January away loss at Miami.

Who will win this critical ACC tilt? Join me as I look closer at the odds with free college basketball picks for Miami vs. Clemson on Wednesday, February 14. 

Miami vs Clemson best odds

Miami vs Clemson picks and predictions

The Miami Hurricanes are in big trouble and need a Quadrant 1 win in the worst way when they meet the Clemson Tigers tonight. 

Miami has dropped three of five, and injuries to second-leading scorer Nijel Pack and reserve guard Kyshawn George could cause both to miss tonight’s tilt. 

Yikes.

The Hurricanes' bench isn’t very deep and being down two men in a “must-win” situation will require someone to pick up the scoring slack, and that someone will be junior guard Matthew Cleveland.

Cleveland began the season on fire, scoring a dozen or more in 12 of the Hurricanes' first 13 games, but has failed to clear 11.5 points in four of his last six. That’s been a problem that Miami head coach Jim Larranaga addressed earlier this week. 

"Matt Cleveland, I'll be meeting with him today to see if I can figure out how to get him back to being a consistent double-figure scorer. He's had a very good year as a whole, but the last several games, he's kind of been left out of the offense, and we need him desperately to be a double-figure scorer, be in that 15-point category on a nightly basis," Larranaga told reporters.

That sounds good in a presser, but Cleveland has struggled to get shots up. He jacked up 10 field-goal attempts over his last two games, and we should expect, at the very least, for the junior guard to launch more tonight. And he should get some help,

"We're taking way too many shots off the bounce and not enough catch-and-shoot," Larranaga added. "We're a much better shooting team than we have shot in conference play. I think a lot of that has to do with the shot selection, guys taking quick shots off the bounce. We dribble the ball too much. I've said it all season long. We're very comfortable shooting the ball off the bounce, but we are a much better team shooting the ball off the catch."

Finally, we should expect a ‘Canes offense potentially down two scorers without much of a bench to shoot deeper into the clock by making the extra pass, and Cleveland should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He knocks down 52.2% from the field and 37.7% from downtown and meets an average Clemson shooting defense he should get good looks against. The tempo will be perfect for the junior guard, and I expect Cleveland to return to double-digit scoring.

My best bet: Matthew Cleveland Over 11.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

Miami vs Clemson same-game parlay

Matthew Cleveland 15+ points

Wooga Poplar 10+ points

Chase Hunter Over 13.5 points

+525 at DraftKings

DraftKings didn’t give us the Over 11.5 points we enjoyed as our best bet in the SGP, but Cleveland is going to clear 15+ because the coach wants him to shoot more, and he’s proven he can pull this off. Miami focusing more on ball movement should also help guard Wooga Poplar clear a number he’s cleared in three of his last five.

Clemson guard Chase Hunter has a good matchup tonight and has scored over 13.5 in three of his previous five home games. He scored 16 in their last meeting at Miami by taking it to the rim, and we should expect the same type of game from him at home with a couple of extra buckets in transition, thanks to some Miami miscues.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami vs Clemson spread and Over/Under analysis

I chose the Cleveland prop for my best bet because scoring a dozen points is the one pregame bet on the board most likely to win, but the main betting markets are fuzzy and have in-game wagering written all over them. 

The worst part of placing a pregame bet on either side of the spread is figuring out where the line will close — the status of both Miami guards Pack and George won’t likely be revealed until just before the tip — and that makes it tough to take a solid position one way or the other. 

Tonight’s game opened Miami +7.5 (-110) straight across the sports betting landscape, and the lack of any movement anywhere is probably due to the status of Miami’s guards. 

Miami is 6-4-0 against the spread over its previous 10 games and 3-3-1 ATS as the away team. It faces a Clemson side coming off two strong away victories over North Carolina and Syracuse but is 5-6-0 ATS at Littlejohn Coliseum.

The total has moved slightly from the 151.5 (-110) opening, and Over bettors can get a pregame number of 150.5 (-115) at FanDuel. We’ll surely see movement on the total once the injury report is revealed. Miami is 2-5-0 to the Under as a visitor, while Clemson's home games have ended 7-4-0 to the Over.

My lean tonight is for Miami to cover the spread, but I need more information before tapping the cyber counter. The Hurricanes are 5-0-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss and meet a Tigers program that could suffer a letdown after two huge away victories. Clemson is 1-4-0 ATS over its past five home games, but I want a better number than +7.5, and we’ll likely get that during the game tonight. 

Miami vs Clemson betting trend to know

Hurricanes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss meeting, and the Tigers are 1-4-0 ATS in their previous five home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Clemson.

Miami vs Clemson game info

Miami vs Clemson key injuries

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