A quick turnaround pits two ACC titans against one another when Miami travels to North Carolina. Both teams played 48 hours ago and will be looking to continue winning streaks.
Miami's three-guard lineup of attacking, dangerous offensive options is lethal against any team. The Canes come into this matchup on a three-game winning streak, third in the ACC standings, and fresh off a win against lowly Louisville.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is fighting for its postseason life while searching for more consistency. The Tar Heels enter this matchup after a dominant win against Clemson. However, losing on the road to Wake Forest beforehand perfectly illustrates the team's inconsistent season.
What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Miami vs. North Carolina.
Miami vs North Carolina best odds
Miami vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Miami has averaged 84 points per game over the last three, while North Carolina is just a little behind with 77. Both teams want to play fast, and one may focus more on that area. So we're expecting lots of scoring.
These two teams have been picking up the tempo throughout February. North Carolina is averaging 76.5 possessions over its previous two games, up from the team's season average of 69.3. It's no secret that UNC wants to play fast, as that's what the Tar Hells have primarily built their identity on over the past 20 years.
Speeding the game up is also in Miami's best interests, and the Hurricanes have been playing faster lately too. They create mismatches with a small-ball lineup in transition. That's partly why Miami's transition offense is the 10th-best in the country, scoring 1.2 points per possession.
The Canes will get destroyed at the rim on Monday. That's a concession Miami makes going into most ACC games with its smaller lineup, but it'll especially be a weakness against North Carolina. Armando Bacot is a guy you may have heard about before. The reigning ACC Player of the Year spearheads a post-up offense that's easily the best in the ACC while shooting 53% from the field. That's a prominent issue for a Miami team that puts little size on the court and is also poor with its post-up defense.
On the other end, Miami's transition prowess is a significant part of this handicap. North Carolina also simply hasn't been good defensively most of the season. The Tar Heels don't force any turnovers (330th nationally), and their field-goal defense numbers are modest to average.
The Hurricanes have been destroying those average defenses on a nightly basis now. Ask Duke after Miami dropped 81 points on the Blue Devils. Expect Miami to enjoy success off half-court ball screens regularly. Defending that has been a problem for North Carolina most of the season, allowing opponents to score just under a point per possession on ball screens. Isaiah Wong and Nigel Pack have been lethal in that area, and they're well-positioned to attack this matchup.
Take the Over on Monday. It's a high number, but I've projected the total to finish at 161.5, so there's plenty of value. One of the best offenses in the country will be featured in what figures to be a fast-paced game against an opponent with a clear offensive advantage. There will be plenty of scoring.
My best bet: Over 154.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Miami vs North Carolina moneyline analysis
Miami's guard play is as good as any team's in the nation, which makes the Hurricanes dangerous. I'm a big fan of this team come March and am therefore in no hurry to fade the Hurricanes on Monday.
The problem is that North Carolina needs to win this game if the Tar Heels want to make the NCAA Tournament. It would give the Heels a signature victory to bolster a thin resume. However, I'm not rushing to fade UNC either since the team is so well-positioned on Monday. I therefore don't have a moneyline or spread play.
If you have a strong opinion about the winner, wait to place an in-game wager. With a high-scoring affair likely coming, there will surely be better numbers available then on either side compared to pregame.
It's not just overall scoring that should lead to a good live number. We're also dealing with two erratic teams. Miami and North Carolina are among the national leaders in 10-0 runs, meaning there's a substantial chance for significant momentum shifts throughout the contest.
Miami vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis
I'm expecting this game to feature two teams that want to run, run, run. That means we'll see some good execution in transition.
The market has already steamed this Over up quite a bit. It opened at 153.5 at most shops and has been bet up everywhere. I'm following that market movement and would bet this total up to 159.5.
Miami vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Miami is 17-4 against the spread in its last 21 games following an ATS loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. North Carolina.
Miami vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Monday, February 13, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
