The No. 14 Miami Hurricanes head to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA basketball action this afternoon.
The Fighting Irish have owned this ACC rivalry in recent years but oddsmakers are expecting them to lose today with college basketball betting odds opening with the Hurricanes as 3-point road favorites.
Here are my best free Miami vs. Notre Dame college basketball picks and predictions for December 30.
Miami vs Notre Dame best odds
Miami vs Notre Dame picks and predictions
These teams are heading in opposite directions. The red-hot Hurricanes have won eight games in a row while going 5-2 against the spread in their last seven.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS in their last six. This is a Notre Dame team that struggles to defend and is 240th in the country in opponent field goal percentage (45.4%) while ranking 206th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Considering how weak their schedule has been, the Irish have had far too many close calls against weak teams including one-possession wins versus Radford and Lipscomb and defeats against St. Bonaventure and Florida State.
That's bad news against a finely-tuned Miami offense that is 33rd in the nation with a 48.1 FG% and ranks 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Canes were able to do enough on offense to get the job done against strong defensive teams like Virginia and Rutgers which means they should be able to handle the Irish today.
My best bet: Miami -2.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Miami vs Notre Dame spread analysis
The Irish have gone 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings between these conference foes but that streak looks like it will end today given how these teams have performed this year.
The Hurricanes are 12-1 and are coming off a 66-64 victory over No. 13 Virginia, where they limited the Cavaliers to 37% shooting. That improves Miami's record to 3-1 against Quadrant 1 foes and they have also gone 2-0 versus Quad 2 opponents.
Miami has excellent guard play led by Isaiah Wong (17.2 ppg, 4.5 apg, 1.8 spg) and Jordan Miller (14.8 ppg on 53/33/85 shooting splits).
The Hurricanes have a small lineup with 6-foot-7 center Norchad Omier their tallest player logging at least 10 minutes per game. However, Omier is third in the ACC with 9.8 rebounds per game and the Irish aren't built to exploit that size weakness since they rank just 236th in the country in rebounding rate.
Although the Canes don't defend particularly well, their adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 105 is still significantly better than Notre Dame's.
The Irish are coming off a victory against Jacksonville, which snapped a three-game losing streak for Mike Brey's squad. The Irish have faced just a single Quadrant 1 opponent this season (losing by 15 points at home to Marquette) and won against their only Quad 2 foe.
Notre Dame has a highly-experienced lineup that does all the little things right, fouling at the third-lowest rate in the country, ranking fourth in turnovers per possession, and sixth in free-throw percentage (79.7%). That said, the Irish's lack of length and athleticism get them killed on the defensive end of the floor.
Miami vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis
The last three meetings between these schools easily cashed the Under (all coincidentally hitting exactly 132 points) despite totals sitting between 139 and 141.5. Today's total is higher at 144, but it makes some sense based on how efficient these offenses have been.
What's keeping this number relatively low is Notre Dame's sluggish pace. The Irish rank 341st in the country in adjusted tempo while averaging 19.7 seconds per length of possession. The Hurricanes play at a relatively quick pace with the ball but opponents average 18.5 seconds per possession against them — which ranks 346th in the country.
Under trends abound for both squads with Miami going 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games on the road while the Irish are 7-1 to the Under in their previous eight contests at home.
Miami vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
The Hurricanes are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Notre Dame.
Miami vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Purcell Pavilion, Notre Dame, ID |
| Date: | Friday, December 30, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
