Miami vs Pittsburgh Picks and Predictions: Punchless Pitt Offense Falls Short

On Tuesday, the Miami Hurricanes will be looking to bounce back from a bad home loss to Virginia when they take on the Pittsburgh Panthers at the Petersen Events Center. This season has been rather rough on Pittsburgh, but the team has won three of its last four. 

Will the Panthers come away with the home win over the Hurricanes here? You’ll want to keep reading our Miami vs. Pittsburgh college basketball picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 22 to find out. 

Miami vs Pittsburgh odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Hurricanes opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Panthers and are still laying only 3.5 in this road game, despite some of the early action being on Miami. Meanwhile, the total opened at 136.5 and is now making its way to 137 at most books. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Miami vs Pittsburgh predictions

• Prediction: Miami -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 136.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Miami -3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Miami vs Pittsburgh game info

• Location: Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ACC Network

Miami at Pittsburgh betting preview

Injuries

Miami: No injuries to report. 
Pittsburgh: Nike Sibande G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Miami is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Miami vs. Pittsburgh.

Miami vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Miami has one of the best offenses in the nation, which doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh team that is 132nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com). The Hurricanes are the 19th-best team in college basketball in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the roster has a number of different players that can beat opposing defenses. 

Whether it’s Kameron McGusty or Isaiah Wong, who combine to average 33.3 points per game for Miami, the Hurricanes always have wings that are capable of going out there and creating good looks for themselves. Both players are gifted as off-ball scorers and the Panthers don’t really have anybody that can consistently get stops on them.

Meanwhile, veteran floor general Charlie Moore is one of the most experienced players in all of college basketball. He’s a great table-setter for this Miami offense, as he averages 12.4 points and 4.0 assists per game and tends to make the right reads every time he has the ball in his hands. His presence is the reason Miami shouldn’t go out there and lay an egg in what is a let-down spot. 

Miami’s defense isn’t anything to write home about this year, with the team being just 157th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, Pittsburgh’s offense is just 219th in adjusted efficiency in college basketball this season, which is downright dreadful.

The Hurricanes should be just fine on that end of the floor as long as they are keeping a close eye on Ithiel Horton. The junior is 17 for 36 from the outside over the last five games, and he’s shooting 46.0% from deep in the nine games he has played this year. He might not be the leading scorer on this Pittsburgh team — that distinction belongs to John Hugley, who is averaging 14.5 points per game — but he is the most dangerous. 

Prediction: Miami -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Over has hit in three of the last five games that Miami has played, and the team’s meeting with Virginia also happened to go Over — that should say a lot about the way the Hurricanes play on both ends. This Hurricanes team is really good on the offensive end, despite not playing at a fast pace. Miami should have a lot of success on the offensive end against a lousy Pittsburgh defense, but the Panthers should also score their share of points against a mediocre Hurricanes defense. 

These teams actually combined to score 152 points the last time they met, which was back on March 9 of last year. On top of that, the Over is 7-1 in the games Miami has played with totals between 130 and 139.5 this season. Those games had an average of 148.3 points per game scored. This one should be played in a similar range, making it comfortably go Over this number. 

Prediction: Over 136.5 (-110)

Best bet

Since Jeff Capel became the head coach of Pittsburgh, the Panthers are 10-23 against the spread when playing against teams that have winning records after the 15-game mark of a season. Pittsburgh has lost those games by an average of 8.8 points per game, and the team now faces a Miami squad that is coming off a three-point loss to Virginia. Over the last three seasons, the Hurricanes are 6-0 against the spread when coming off a loss by three or fewer points against ACC opponents. The Hurricanes won those games by an average of 6.2 points per game. 

With the trends backing up the on-court mismatches in this one, it’s just really hard to come up with reasons to back Pittsburgh in this spot. The Panthers might be playing at home in this game, but the crowd could be a bit lethargic considering this Pittsburgh team isn’t looking like it has any postseason future. 

Pick: Miami -3.5 (-110)

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