The Virginia Cavaliers are streaking, seeking a seventh straight win when they host the Miami Hurricanes in ACC action tonight from John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville.
Virginia sits alone in second in the conference, a couple of games back of front-running North Carolina. The Cavs are 5.5-point home favorites in the college basketball odds.
Miami — a Final Four participant a season ago — has won three of four. Finally healthy, it's trying to make a push from the middle of the pack.
Can the 'Canes put an end to the longest home winning streak in the country, which currently sits at 22 games? Check my Miami vs Virginia preview below, complete with free college basketball picks for Monday, February 5.
Miami vs Virginia best odds
Miami vs Virginia picks and predictions
Other schools should be well aware by now, but having the Virginia Cavaliers on the schedule means a date in the grindhouse.
The Cavaliers allow just 57.8 points per game, which ranks second in the NCAA, and they're one of only three schools — along with Houston and Saint Mary’s — to hold opponents to sub-60 scoring on the season.
Virginia is 11th in field-goal defense, with teams shooting just 39.4%, and everything is earned. It allows just 13.3 free throws per game (sixth), and 9.8 makes (ninth).
After holding its previous three opponents to 53 points or less, Virginia downed the Clemson Tigers 66-65, in what seemed like a scoring bonanza last time out. Clemson, the fifth-highest scoring team in the league at 79 points per game, was held to 35.7% shooting, but it did manage to get to the stripe 21 times, making 18.
Another high-octane offense is on tap, as the Miami Hurricanes are third in the ACC in scoring at 80.8 points per game, a Top-40 mark in college hoops.
The ‘Canes shoot it at a 48.1% clip, which ranks 30th in the NCAA, and they’re among the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation, hitting at a crisp 38.1% rate.
That offense has been bottled up of late, as Miami has averaged just 71.9 points across the previous seven (going 3-4 in those games), before breaking out in an 82-74 win over Virginia Tech last game.
The Hurricanes shot 45.3% from the field, including a 7-for-16 mark from distance. They also made hay at the stripe, going 27-for-29, a +20 advantage.
It’s hard to be confident about Miami’s offense against the Cavaliers, though. In the previous 10 matchups, it has broken the 70-point plateau just once, averaging 57.2 points per game. Virginia ranks among the lowest-scoring teams in college basketball at 342nd, scoring 65.4 points per game.
No surprise, then, that the Under has gone 7-3 in the last 10. The 132-point line is higher than any of those games, and it's only the second to touch the 130-point mark.
My best bet: Under 132 (-110 at DraftKings)
Miami vs Virginia same-game parlay
Under 132
Miami +5.5
Miami has been a solid cover wager of late, going 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five outings. In their most recent matchup in Dec 2022, the Hurricanes snapped a six-game losing slide to the Cavaliers with a close 66-64 win as 3.5-point underdogs.
Miami has covered the spread in his head-to-head four times in the last six games. Miami should have enough scoring pop to keep up with Virginia offensively just like Clemson did.
Assuming they can get to the mid-60-point range, that should be enough to keep it within 5.5 points of Virginia.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis
The line opened at Miami +4, but that line has moved to a high of 5.5. Both schools have winning records against the spread, with Virginia at 12-9-1 ATS, and the ‘Canes at 13-8-1. While Virginia has won six of the last seven straight up and seven of 10, Miami has been the bettor's pick, covering six times.
We’ve talked about the total, which has hit a high of 132.5 and has not dipped below 130.5.
Virginia has seen the Over go just 9-13-0 in their games, while Miami’s Over/Under record is split at 11-11.
Miami vs Virginia betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Virginia.
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Miami vs Virginia game info
| Location: | John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Monday, February 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Miami vs Virginia key injuries
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