The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will take on the top-seeded Miami Hurricanes in the third round of the ACC Tournament on Thursday.
The No. 9 seed Deacons got past Syracuse in the second round with some last-second heroics, but they'll need to be even better on Thursday if they want to upset the ACC regular season champs.
Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout with college basketball betting lines opening with an Over/Under of 156.5 and the Hurricanes installed as 7-point favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Miami vs. Wake Forest on March 8.
Miami vs Wake Forest best odds
Miami vs Wake Forest picks and predictions
Despite Miami's impressive 24-6 overall record and its No. 13 ranking in the AP Top 25, there have to be major question marks surrounding a supposed contender that is this bad defensively.
The Hurricanes are outside the Top 200 in scoring defense (71.7 points per game allowed) while ranking outside the Top 250 in opponent field goal percentage. They also match up poorly with Wake Forest's offense, which makes sense when you consider that the Deacons dropped 87 points against them in Coral Gables less than three weeks ago.
The Canes are 355th in defensive efficiency against off-ball screen plays per ShotQualityBets, while the Deacons are the top team in the country at running off-ball screens. The Hurricanes also rank near the bottom of the country at defending catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and midrange shots. The Deacons excel in both of those areas, boasting the 18th-best mark in the country in offensive efficiency on catch-and-shoot threes while ranking 35th in efficiency from the midrange.
With the Deacons already having a game under their belt in the tourney, I'll take them with the points against a Hurricanes side that could take a while to adjust to the sight lines at the Greensboro Coliseum.
My best bet: Wake Forest +7 (-110 at William Hill)
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Miami vs Wake Forest spread analysis
Wake Forest's Daivien Williamson knocked down a 3-pointer with less than a second remaining to beat Syracuse 77-74 last night. Tyree Appleby also dished out 12 assists to make up for a rare poor shooting night from beyond the arc.
It was an impressive offensive performance from the Deacons, who had struggled to score in their previous three games since losing second-leading scorer Damari Monsanto (13.3 ppg) to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.
Over the course of the entire season, Wake Forest has been impressive on offense. The Deacons are 27th in the country in effective field goal percentage (54.5%) while ranking 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Appleby is the star of the team and was named ACC Player of the Year runner-up after leading the conference with 18.8 ppg and 6.3 assists per game.
The Hurricanes are also coming off a close game, although that came on Saturday when they edged the Panthers 78-76 at home to claim a share of the ACC regular season title.
The Hurricanes went 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread to close out the regular season. That was due to a high-powered attack that led the ACC in scoring (80.1 ppg) and field goal percentage (48.3%) in conference play.
Miami's Isaiah Wong was named ACC Player of the Year and averages 15.9 ppg while Jordan Miller scores 15.1 ppg on 54/35/80 shooting. Forward Norchad Omier added 14.1 ppg on 59% shooting while ranking second in the conference with 10 rebounds per game.
Miami vs Wake Forest Over/Under analysis
The total is sitting at a massive 156.5 for this noon showdown, but given the previous meeting and the playing styles of these teams, we could see it easily surpassed. Keep in mind that they combined for a whopping 183 points when they last met on February 18.
Both these schools can shoot from anywhere on the floor and have good ball movement, but they have also struggled on defense. Although the Hurricanes are 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they are just 126th in adjusted defensive efficiency while Wake Forest is even worse at 146th.
Miami's volatility on defense has meant that it has given up more than 80 points in four of its last nine games — which includes a pair of ugly defensive showings against subpar Florida State and Louisville teams.
The Deacons have also been poor on defense and gave up 75.7 ppg on 46.1 FG% to ACC foes. Combine all that with the fact that these teams play at the fastest tempo in the conference and it's easy to see why this total is so high.
Miami vs Wake Forest betting trend to know
The Over is 10-0-1 in Wake Forest's last 11 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Wake Forest.
Miami vs Wake Forest game info
| Conference: | ACC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
