Michigan State vs Iowa Picks and Predictions: Going Guard-Heavy Guides Spartans to Cover

The Michigan State Spartans are sliding down the Big Ten standings at the absolute worst time of the year, losing four of their last five heading into a road matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes — one of the conference's hottest programs.

The Hawkeyes have claimed victory in four of their last five, including an upset win at No. 18 Ohio State last time out. Iowa’s high-powered offense will test the MSU attack, with the Spartans struggling to score the past month.

Check out our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Michigan State at Iowa on February 22.

Michigan State vs Iowa odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Iowa opened as a 7-point home favorite and has slimmed to -6.5 as of Tuesday morning with some shops still sitting at Hawkeyes -7. The total hit the board at 153.5 points and has remained steady, with some books dipping to 153 before tacking the half-point hook back on the number.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Michigan State vs Iowa predictions

• Prediction: Michigan State +7 (-116)
• Prediction: Over 153.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Michigan State 1H TT Over 34.5 points (-110)

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Michigan State vs Iowa game info

• Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IO
• Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Michigan State at Iowa betting preview

Injuries

Michigan State: None.
Iowa: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 20-7-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 28 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Iowa.

Michigan State vs Iowa picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

These rivals are moving in opposite directions with the Big Ten tournament looming and Selection Sunday off in the distance. The Spartans’ sputter in February is uncharacteristic of Tom Izzo’s program, which usually finds its stride when the schedule shrinks.

Offensive ineptitude has plagued MSU this month, averaging just over 66 points per game after posting nearly 75 a night before the calendar flipped to February. The Spartans managed 74 points in their last outing — a 79-74 home loss to Illinois — but needed a second-half surge to overcome a dismal 22-point first half on Saturday.

Michigan State won’t have the home crowd to power any potential comebacks inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena tonight. The Spartans, whose offensive efficiency shrivels up on the road (averaging 7.5 fewer points as visitors) could be bringing a Nerf gun to a bazooka fight, with Iowa packing one of the stiffest scoring punches in the country.

The Hawkeyes are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com and post 87.7 points per home game — second most in the land. Iowa has four proven scoring threats averaging double digits, headlined by 6-foot-8 small forward Keegan Murray, who is putting up 23.4 points per outing.  

At first glance, it looks like MSU is in over its head. However, the Spartans did show some marbles with their second-half effort versus the Illini — rebounding from that dismal first half to pour in 52 second-half points — and Iowa is ripe for the letdown spot after that stunner over the Buckeyes on the weekend.

Michigan State is still a strong defensive team (57th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and checking foes to a 46.2% effective field goal percentage (29th). If it can force some misses from the Hawkeyes, the Spartans will own the glass. Iowa is 148th in rebound rate while MSU sits 30th in that metric and has the size to bully the Hawkeyes on the boards, most notably on the offensive end for second-chance putbacks. 

Prediction: Michigan State +7 (-116)

Over/Under analysis

Trying to go tit-for-tat with the Hawkeyes’ offense isn’t the smartest plan, but Izzo will have to find buckets where he can tonight. 

He was able to spark scoring in the final 20 minutes with Illinois by running point guards Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard together on the floor. That allowed Walker to primarily focus on scoring, dropping all but two of his season-high 26 points in the second half.

Going guard-heavy will also help up the MSU tempo on offense while not giving up too much size and worrying about Iowa owning the glass. The Spartans will need quick transition looks off of Hawkeye misses and convert those into 3-point buckets.

Michigan State is among the best outside shooting teams in the nation, knocking down 38.3% of attempts from beyond the arc this year. The Spartans don’t lean on the triple (attempting only 19 per game) but shot 8 for 21 from distance versus Illinois and will need to be more aggressive with those deeper looks.

Prediction: Over 153.5 (-110)

Best bet

Another slow start will doom Michigan State tonight. The Spartans may have had enough energy to spark a turnaround at home against the Illini, but they will lose a game of catch-up against this potent Hawkeyes attack on the road.

The Spartans have managed first-half efforts of 22, 24, and 23 points in three of their last four outings and Izzo will be adamant about early energy tonight, picking up where they left off in the second half of Saturday's loss. Iowa’s pace of play will help with that push, as the Hawkeyes run the second-fastest tempo in the Big Ten.

Expect Izzo to go back to his dual-PG lineup of Hoggard and Walker and try to find the first-half efforts that posted 37, 38, and 35 points in three of the first four games in February. Iowa isn’t a great defensive program, allowing 34.3 points per first half on the season, and runs the risk of being flat to open this game after such a huge win on the weekend.

Pick: Michigan State first-half team total Over 34.5 points (-110)

Pages related to this topic