The Michigan State Spartans are rolling, winners of eight straight and a perfect 4-0 to start conference play. The 7-6 Michigan Wolverines are losers of two straight and may not seem impressive at first glance, but actually present the Spartans with their toughest conference challenge yet.
Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs Michigan on Saturday, January 7th for more.
Michigan State vs Michigan odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The spread opened with Michigan as 1-point favorites and they have since moved a point up to -2. The total opened at 143.5 and currently sits there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan State vs Michigan predictions
Predictions made on 1/7/2022 at 8:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan State vs Michigan game info
• Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbour, MI
• Date: Saturday, January 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FSN
Michigan State at Michigan betting preview
Injuries
Michigan State: None.
Michigan: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Both Michigan and Michigan State have gone Over the total in five of their last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Michigan State vs Michigan picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Saturday will be the Michigan Wolverines’ first home game in three weeks, when they begin a two-game homestand against No. 10 Michigan State and No. 3 Purdue. Michigan comes home after a disappointing two-game road trip in which they lost to Central Florida and Rutgers, two teams outside the Top 50 in KenPom efficiency rankings. A loss to Michigan State would mark the first time Michigan fell to .500 or worse since November 2015. It is truly sink or swim for the Wolverines.
Prior to their recent losses, the Wolverines were a respectable 7-4 with three of their four losses coming against teams ranked favorably by KenPom: Arizona (8th), Seton Hall (27th), and North Carolina (31st). The Minnesota loss was admittedly a bad one, and obviously the two they've tacked on as of late don't help.
Much of Michigan's inconsistent play has come due to their reliance on players with a relative lack of experience. Michigan's frontcourt is led by sophomore Hunter Dickinson (16.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and true freshman Moussa Diabate (8.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG). Dickinson has been as advertised, but Diabate has taken some time to grow into his role. After averaging just 6.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in 16.4 minutes per game in his first five games, Diabate has since put up 11.7 points and 7.7 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game (excluding the seven minutes he played against San Diego State on 12/4).
Their backcourt has leading veteran presence Eli Brooks (12.9 PPG) but also features another true freshman in Caleb Houstan, who has thus far struggled to adjust to the next level. Houstan is averaging a respectable 9.5 points per game but is accomplishing it while shooting 36.4% from the field, including 31.3% from three, where he gets the majority of his looks (4.9 attempts per game).
The Wolverines will need Houstan to step up in a big way on Saturday, as they are 5-1 when he shoots above his season average and 2-5 when he shoots below it. In the last four games alone, he has gone 2/17 from three and Michigan has unsurprisingly gone 1-3 during that stretch. Prior to that slump, however, he was shooting 44.4% at home, and Saturday could mark a good opportunity to tap into that prior success in Ann Arbor.
Michigan State will certainly present a challenge, however, as they feature a formidable forward trio of Gabe Brown (14.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Marcus Bingham (10.5 PPG, 7.8 PPG), and Malik Hall (9.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG). The three are respectively athletic for their size, and Tom Izzo uses that across his roster to his advantage to give different looks and various challenges for other teams to figure out. It's largely why the Spartans rank favorably both offensively (25th in KenPom) and defensively (21st).
Nevertheless, despite their current Top-10 ranking, Michigan State has a clear ceiling. It lost by double digits at home Kansas and by 17 to Baylor, both at home. That is a ceiling that Michigan can realistically play to, especially at home.
Prediction: Michigan -2 (-108)
Over/Under analysis
Michigan loves playing at a slower pace (248th in possessions per game), often taking time to search for the right look inside or the occasional open look from the perimeter. The Wolverines do make good with that time, as they have a 47.1% field goal percentage, good for 59th in the nation.
Michigan State is a little more frenetic with their pace. Often, the Spartans will try to catch teams off-guard in transition, even from the perimeter (and for good reason, their 39.3% three-point percentage ranks 10th). Otherwise, they play hot potato with the ball in the halfcourt until a shot presents itself. Although that approach leads to a good amount of turnovers - their 14.5 turnovers per game are the most in the conference - it also leads to good looks, ranking 25th in the nation in assists per game.
Prediction: Over 143.5 (-110)
Best bet
Michigan is much better than its 7-6 record suggests, and it is certainly built for and capable of going toe-to-toe at home with Michigan State. Diabate continues to grow as a player and Saturday also presents an opportunity for Houstan to get right. To top it off, Hunter Dickinson is averaging 19.3 points per game in his last six following a four-game stretch in which he averaged just 9.3 points per game.
Pick: Michigan -2 (-108)
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