The No. 14 ranked Michigan State Spartans head to Ann Arbor on Friday to take on the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines.
Early money has come in on the Under, shifting the total from 152.5 to 150.5 and my Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions are following that line movement.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this rivalry clash on February 21.
Michigan State vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Under 150.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With their outside shooting having cooled off and a turnover rate that sits outside the Top 300, the Michigan Wolverines' have significantly regressed on offense.
By the middle of January, Michigan led the country in effective field goal percentage (60.4%) while ranking 10th in scoring (85.1 ppg). However, the Wolverines are 197th in eFG% (50.7%) while averaging a modest 75.3 ppg since.
They'll have a tough time generating points against the Michigan State Spartans who are 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom. The Spartans are 20th in the country in opponent eFG% (46.2%) and 28th in defensive rebounding rate. They also lead the Big Ten in defensive rating and opponent eFG% (45.9%) during conference play.
That said, Michigan has also been solid on the defensive end of the floor. The Wolverines are 22nd in adjusted defense while ranking 32nd in opponent 2-point percentage (46.8%).
They do a great job of preventing penetration and allow the 17th-fewest shots at the rim per ShotQualityBets. With seven-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf clogging up the paint, they force opponents into tough mid-range and outside shots.
That's bad news for the Spartans who struggle to knock down shots from the perimeter, ranking 354th in 3-point percentage (29.1%). They are also outside the Top 150 in eFG% (50.9%) and turnover rate (16.8%) since the start of the New Year. Everything about this matchup suggests a low-scoring rock-fight between rivals.
Michigan State vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 150.5
Michigan State +3.5
Nimari Burnett Under 10.5 points
Home-court advantage tends to be a bit overvalued in rivalry games where the visitors don't have to travel far and teams are highly motivated and familiar with each other. MSU is 4-1-1 ATS on the road this season while the Wolverines have covered the spread just once in their last nine games.
The Spartans are also 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between these conference foes and I like their stingy defense to keep things close here.
Nimari Burnett is averaging 10.1 ppg and has gone below this number in four of his last six games. A whopping 68.4% of his field goal attempts come from beyond the arc and the Spartans hold Big Ten foes to a league-low 28.1 3PT%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Michigan State AI prediction
Michigan enters this game on a six-game winning streak, but each victory has been narrow, with an average margin of just 3.2 points. Meanwhile, Michigan State boasts a formidable defense, leading the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and limiting opponents in key categories like effective field goal shooting and three-point shooting. Michigan has the home-court advantage, but the Spartans’ defensive prowess gives them the edge in what should be a tight game.
Michigan vs Michigan State score prediction
Michigan State 76, Michigan 73
According to computer models, Michigan is projected to edge out Michigan State with a 76-73 win. Expect a closely contested game with both teams vying for crucial Big Ten positioning.
Analysis and score prediction courtesy of ChatGPT.
Michigan State vs Michigan odds
Michigan State vs Michigan live odds
Michigan State vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +2.5 | Michigan -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +120 | Michigan -140
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan State vs Michigan betting trend to know
The Under is 11-4 in Michigan State's last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
How to watch Michigan State vs Michigan
| Location | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Friday, 2-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Michigan State vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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